4 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 4/5/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-128)

Two of the National League's titans will duel at MLB's fifth-best park for bombs. I can't imagine a second consecutive quiet offensive showing.

That's especially the case when both starting pitchers have struggled to open the 2025 campaign. Los Angeles Dodgers offseason prize Roki Sasaki was billed as a bit raw at 23 years old, and he's certainly had his growing pains. Sasaki's 9.16 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is enormous largely thanks to a 34.6% walk rate.

Aaron Nola is too deep into his career for those command issues, but the veteran surrendered posted a 5.06 xERA and 8.44 actual ERA with poor contact splits in his debut. The Philadelphia Phillies are no stranger to the righty's up-and-down results, but a valley at present is a bit terrifying opposite the league's gold standard.

I'll dodge two bullpens crafted to compete in October, but chances are one of these two's poor trajectory continues. L.A. and Philadelphia are two of the top-three teams in OPS against right-handed pitching just over a week into the season.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+240)

I'm not usually a fan of the chalkiest home run on the board, but Shohei Ohtani continues to check every box for a bomb.

He has three in nine games, which might undersell his potential against opposite-handed pitchers. He's already rocking a .556 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 58.3% hard-hit rate against righties.

Nola certainly struggled with contact in his debut, coughing up a 46.2% flyball and 50.0% hard-hit rate. He also gave up a pair of dingers in the nation's capital.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.40 median home runs from Ohtani. That's the most of any hitter today and would, normally, imply closer to +203 odds for one.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Reds Over 3.5 Runs (-150)

I know the Cincinnati Reds have, impossibly, lost four straight games allowing three runs or fewer, but this healthy lineup will break out at some point.

It could be as soon as tonight as the Milwaukee Brewers send Elvin Rodriguez to the bump. Rodriguez has just 7.1 innings in MLB since the start of 2013, but he allowed 3 earned runs in just 4.0 innings in his Brew Crew debut. He had just a 15.8% K rate and surrendered 2.28 HR/9.

Milwaukee's bullpen also has the league's fourth-highest bullpen xFIP (5.50) so far, too.

Games like this are what makes betting baseball so difficult. Cincinnati's offense has looked horrible, but DRatings (3.84) and Massey (3.98) have a significantly higher median projection for the Reds' total than this prop would otherwise indicate.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Austin Riley to Record an RBI (+115)

Austin Riley's stat line definitely doesn't reveal how well he's swinging it.

Riley's .593 OPS against RHP thus far leaves plenty to be desired in the Atlanta Braves's cleanup spot, but he's posted a massive hard-hit (42.9%) and flyball (57.1%) rate in line with his stronger numbers from a year ago. He's going to be finding more extra-base hits and fewer gloves soon.

I'll take him to knock in a run behind that hard contact rather than his bases prop (-115). Atlanta's 5.25-run implied team total is beefy opposite Cal Quantrill and the Miami Marlins. Per consecutive seasons with an xERA and SIERA over 5.00, Quantrill's rough outing in his opening start was no fluke.

FDR projects Riley for 0.70 RBI at a median, which means we'd have set this line closer to -101.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.