Early in the season, we -- justifiably -- focus on avoiding overreactions.

We want to make sure we're not putting too much weight on a small sample. Things can be fluky early on, and it's important not to assume what we've seen so far will remain status quo going forward.

For Week 3, I actually think there are some underreactions in the market.

Those first two weeks of data still count. When properly combined with our preseason priors, we should have a better idea of what to expect now than we did two weeks ago. And, for me personally, I feel like those first two weeks are being undercounted in at least a couple of spots.

Those include two of my favorite bets in Week 3's NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's dig into those first, and then we'll outline a couple of totals I like, as well.

Week 3 NFL Betting Picks

Broncos at Buccaneers

Bucs -6.5 (-115)

My preseason model had the Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored by 7.5 over the Denver Broncos in this game, and nothing we've seen thus far has led me to believe those priors were off.

Through two games, the Bucs lead the league in early-down passing efficiency, according to my numbers. This is a big deviation for a team that least year skirted by thanks to late-down wizardry. They've still been good on late downs, too, but improvements to stay ahead of the sticks would do a lot to up the confidence in the stickiness of this Bucs team.

The Broncos are tied with the New York Giants for dead last in early-down passing efficiency, though they do look a bit better once you adjust for schedule. This is understandable; it's a team in a rebuilding phase, so we shouldn't expect them to shred right away. But that doesn't change the outlook for Sunday, specifically.

Because of where my preseason numbers had this game, I've got faith we're not overreacting to a small sample. That's why I'm comfortable laying the 6.5, even in a game with a low total.

Eagles at Saints

Saints -2.5 (-118)

We're not getting the best number here. You could have bet the New Orleans Saints' moneyline at +115 yesterday. Now, we're laying 2.5 points at -118.

But the Saints' hot start combined with another likely absence for A.J. Brown has me still showing value in New Orleans over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Not only are the Saints second behind the Bucs in early-down passing efficiency, but they also lead the league in early-down rushing efficiency. That's concerning for an Eagles defense that is last against the run by my metrics and looks even worse once you adjust for schedule.

The defensive issues were present for the Eagles last year, and the hiring of Vic Fangio doesn't seem to have magically healed them. The model doesn't account for vibes, but the Eagles aren't exactly excelling in that category after a last-minute loss.

Here, the preseason model had the Saints favored by 2.2, which was pretty far off market. But the model has been vindicated so far, so I don't mind riding with the Saints one more week as the market continues to adjust.

49ers at Rams

Total Over 43.5 (-115)

(UPDATE: The potential absence of George Kittle here does hurt this bet. However, even if I take Kittle out, the model still has this total above 45, so I'm still fine with the over despite a disappointing development.)

Almost every key injury in this game is on offense with nearly a half dozen superstars unlikely to play.

So why on earth would we bet the over?

A big part of it is the Los Angeles Rams' defense. They're dead last by my numbers against the pass on early downs, and now they won't have John Johnson for the next month.

They'll be facing a San Francisco 49ers offense that will now be without both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, but I think it's fair to keep high expectations. If you look at just 2024 data (with zero snaps out of CMC), the Niners are still second in my offensive power rankings, and they moved the ball effectively in two games Samuel missed last year; they were just bitten by costly turnovers.

The Rams could definitely struggle here given all the injuries, so it's possible we should just be on the hunt for a 49ers team total instead. Either way, I think we'll see more points in this game than bookmakers are projecting.

Ravens at Cowboys

Total Under 48.5 (-105)

(UPDATE: The total here has since shifted down to 47.5 with the under at -115. With 47 being a key number, I'm still comfortable taking the under, though the value is close to drying up.)

This total is down a point from where it was this morning, but I still see value in the under.

Both teams have played in chaotic games thus far, with all four games between them hitting the over. And with the Baltimore Ravens' defensive personnel and coaching turnover, maybe they'll just be a poor unit this year. But it seems a bit premature to assume that.

I also think the Ravens will be able to get their ground game going against the Dallas Cowboys. That has been the Cowboys' biggest weakness thus far, and with runs keeping the clock moving, that bodes well for the under.

I understand why this total is where it is. It's two fun offenses with top-tier quarterbacks, and neither defense has been elite this year. I just think 48.5 is too high when you combine a more rush-heavy script with two defenses that still have talent at key positions.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.