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4 Best Bets and Player Props for Saturday's Women's College Basketball Tournament Games

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4 Best Bets and Player Props for Saturday's Women's College Basketball Tournament Games

The women's college basketball tournament is heating up.

After a chalky opening weekend, the Round of 16 continues on Saturday and features four different games to sift through.

Here are the women's tournament bets that stand out most in FanDuel Sportsbook's women's college basketball betting odds.

Women's College Basketball Betting Picks for Today

Notre Dame vs. TCU

Notre Dame Moneyline & Hannah Hidalgo Over 23.5 Points (+128)

Saturday's headliner is the first game of the slate where we're treated to a rematch between two teams ranked inside the top 10 at Bart Torvik.

TCU won the first meeting by 8, but Notre Dame enters the weekend favored by 6.5 points on FanDuel.

I'm not sure the Irish cover that spread, but I like them to win outright in a revenge spot. This also sets star guard Hannah Hidalgo up for another high-usage game, so we can tack Hidalgo over 23.5 points (-110) onto the Notre Dame moneyline (-300). That Same Game Parlay fetches us +128 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

I can understand the concern with Notre Dame given their late season fall-off and previous loss to TCU. But I'm willing to throw that first head-to-head out the window considering it was back in November and took place in the Cayman Islands. The Irish went on to lose to Utah at the same event, so it's not exactly a proper indication of ND's strength.

The rest of Notre Dame's body of work speaks for itself. The Irish are the 3rd in Torvik's power ratings and sit in the top-six for adjusted offense and defense. They have double-digit wins over UConn, Texas, and USC, so we know they can bring it against the best of the best.

TCU's record (33-3) probably gives them a bit too much credit. They were outside the top 100 in non-conference strength of schedule, and the Big 12 wasn't especially challenging this season. In their only other game against a top five team, South Carolina routed TCU by 33 points.

The Horned Frogs are outside the top 25 in adjusted defense, and that's just not going to play well against Hidalgo and the Irish.

Hannah's averaging 24.1 points per game this season, so we're not asking for anything more than her season average with this over. She's scored at least 24 points in 19 of 30 games overall -- and in 5 of 8 games against top-20 opponents. Her usage rate jumps three percentage points and she averages nearly two more shot attempts per game in such matchups.

We've also already seen Hidalgo torch TCU, too. She filleted the Horned Frogs for 27 points on 22 shot attempts back in November. Hidalgo tied her season-high with 10 free throw attempts in that one, too.

Hannah Hidalgo has been the catalyst behind Notre Dame's dominance this season, and I expect that to continue in the Round of 16. I'm happy to take the over on her 23.5-point prop at -110 odds, but taking on Notre Dame moneyline is an intriguing way to get plus odds.

Tennessee vs. Texas

Under 153.5 (-114)

Tennessee vs. Texas is the Round of 16's highest over/under (153.5), and it's easy to see why on paper. Both sides are top 12 nationally in adjusted offense, and Tennessee's fifth-ranked adjusted tempo can often force opponents into shootouts. Vols have games averaged 157.6 total points, after all.

But I think this high of a total is doing Texas' defense a disservice. The Longhorns are 4th in adjusted defense and have the 2nd-best scoring defense of the remaining 16 teams (55.8 points per game). That's a big reason why Texas games have only averaged 135.1 total points.

This over/under going to come down to whether Tennessee can dictate the pace and compete on the offensive end. Still, Texas' 13 games against top-100 tempo teams have only averaged 142.2 total points. Their 16 games against top-30 teams overall have averaged 130.6 points.

The Vols haven't really shown much consistent offense when facing top defenses, either. They've only averaged 75 points against top 15 defenses. Texas has held top-15 offenses to 66.6 points per game.

Torvik projects just 148 total points here, giving us plenty of leeway with a defense as tough as the Longhorns'. Considering this total has already dropped from 154.5, I'll jump on this under 153.5 and would consider playing it down to 150 total points.

Oklahoma vs. UConn

UConn -14.5 (-114)

One of the biggest ways how JuJu Watkins' knee injury impacted the tournament was that it gave UConn a direct path to winning the region, setting them up as the favorites to win the entire tournament. The Huskies now have -400 odds to win Region 4 and +135 odds to win the national championship.

The games aren't played on paper, but UConn knows they have a feasible path to the title game. I'm not expecting them to overlook Oklahoma with Geno Auriemma at the helm. While the Sooners are a strong team (9th at Torvik), this is more about wanting to buy into the best team in the country.

UConn is the top-ranked team on Bart Torvik and Her Hoops Stats. South Carolina is the only team that's especially close to UConn in either of those ratings, and the Huskies beat them by 29 on the road. They've won 12 straight games dating back to the second week of February. During that stretch, they're 1st in adjusted offense and defense -- again, by a significant margin.

Now, Oklahoma has only lost once in that same stretch, slotting in 11th at Torvik. But their lone loss game by 18 to South Carolina. They'd previously lost to the Gamecocks by 41, and that's hard to ignore even if they kept their Texas matchup to single digits.

Still, the Sooners' struggles against South Carolina really bring to question their upside against the best of the best. They lost each of their other two games against top 10 defenses, and UConn's will be the toughest they've seen.

For the Huskies, this is the type of game we could really see their offense shine. They averaged 84.3 points per game against teams ranked higher than them in adjusted tempo -- up 3 points on their season average. UConn's beaten teams via lopsided margins with regularity since Azi Fudd's return to the lineup. They're 28-1 when Fudd plays at least 10 minutes, with 26 of those wins coming by at least 17 points.

Bart Torvik has UConn projected to win by 14.9 here. Given how well the Huskies are playing right now, I'm content taking them by 14.5.

Kansas State vs. USC

Ayoka Lee Over 16.5 Points (-106)

I wrote up Ayoka Lee over 15.5 points in an early best bets for Kansas State-USC piece, and it's since ticked up to 16.5. With 16 and 17 points in her first two tournament games, I'm still happy to buy into the All-American center in a game we can reasonably expect her to flirt with 30 minutes.

Lee missed a month and a half before returning for the tournament. It was like she never left. The senior scored 16 points in just 15 minutes during K-State's first game and then put up 17 across 28 minutes in the second round. Lee took 18 (!) shot attempts last time out -- tied for her most this season.

But she's been no stranger to high-usage games during her five years in Manhattan, and we've seen her show out in big spots repeatedly. In 17 career games against AP-Top 10 opponents, Ayoka Lee has averaged 18.2 points on 13.6 field goal attempts. She scored at least 17 points in nine of those.

USC isn't at full strength, either. Player of the Year candidate JuJu Watkins suffered a torn ACL in the Trojans' last game. USC still rolled to a big win, but Watkins is a huge loss on both ends of the floor. At 6'2" and with her athleticism, Watkins was a linchpin of their second-ranked defense.

Expect to see a ton of Clarice Akunwafo on Lee in this one. The 6'6" senior has typically been reserved for matchups with other tall players. But that hasn't been a bad thing for the opposing centers. Lauren Betts scored 18, 17, and 11 across three clashes with Akunwafo. In three other games she played 15-plus minutes, the opposing team's center scored 10, 18, and 19 points -- all at or above their season averages.

Assuming Lee gets another strong minutes load, 17 points would be below the norm for her. She's averaged 18 points per game when playing at least 20 minutes.

In a game I think Kansas State can win, look for Ayoka Lee to go over 16.5 points.


You can also click here to get our updated printable Women's College Basketball Tournament bracket for the Round of 16.


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Which bets stand out to you for the upcoming games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest women's college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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