3 Things We Learned From the Opening Weekend of the Men's College Basketball Tournament

The first weekend of the men's college basketball tournament is behind us, and the regional semifinals are set for Thursday and Friday.

FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds had several notable shifts, including Duke pulling away from the pack at +230 to win the national championship while Florida is at +390. The opening weekend taught us plenty. Here are three things we learned from the first and second rounds of the men's college basketball tournament.

What Did We Learn From the Opening Weekend?

2025 Is Not the Year of Cinderellas

For those of you who like upsets, it wasn't a good weekend. Five double-digit seeds won in the first round, which isn't wildly low. However, the first round felt lackluster with no crazy upsets as all five lower seeds who won were 10, 11, or 12 seeds. Every top-four seed survived the opening round.

The second round is where upsets especially lacked. For the first time since 2007, the regional finals don't feature a 12 seed or lower. The only double-digit seed to win in the second round was Arkansas -- a Power Five school.

This is also the first time the regional semifinals will feature only teams from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and ACC. Keep in mind: Duke is the only squad representing the ACC. Seven come from the SEC while the Big 12 and Big Ten each feature four.

I'm not sure if I'd label Arkansas a "Cinderella" either as its an SEC squad with a Hall of Fame coach at the helm in John Calipari.

While the upsets were lacking, this should also mean elite games in the later rounds.

The 1 Seeds Are a Cut Above

Coming into the tournament, we had a feeling the 1 seeds were a little different this season. Before the tourney tipped, the four one seeds were all clearly in their own tier by national title odds, and that remains the case: Duke (+230), Florida (+390), Houston (+550), and Auburn (+550).

From 2017 to 2023, at least one No. 1 seed lost in the first weekend in five of six tournaments. After all 1 seeds advanced to the second weekend a year ago, we saw this repeat in 2025's edition. Is 1 seeds surviving the opening weekend the new trend?

This is the first tournament since 2002 to have all 1 seeds in the top 12 of KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. The men's college basketball tournament has featured all 1 seeds in the national semifinals only once in 2008. With all 1 seeds favored by at least 6.5 points in the regional semifinals, 2025 could be the next tournament to have nothing but 1s in the national semifinals.

The SEC Is Historically Good

The SEC got off to a bumpy start in the first round with an 8-6 record. It was nothing to write home about as the bulk of the wins came from top seeds in heavily favored matchups. Meanwhile, the Big Ten went a perfect 8-0 in the first round, setting the record for the most wins without a loss by a conference in any round of the tournament.

In the second round, the SEC went 7-1, setting a record of seven teams advancing to the regional semifinals. Of course, this includes two of the top four title favorites in Florida and Auburn. Ole Miss has been one of the biggest surprises of the tournament, building at least a 20-point lead in both games and making its first regional semifinals since 2001.

In the Midwest Region, Tennessee has the second-shortest odds to win the region (+230) -- which is the shortest line for the second favorite of any region. Outside of the top four national championship favorites, Tennessee (+1500) and Alabama (+1500) hold the next-shortest lines.

Similar to what we saw in the regular season, the top of the SEC is carrying the weight. No. 4 Texas A&M and No. 6 Missouri were the only SEC teams with top-six seedings to not make the regional semifinals while Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, and Ole Miss all made the cut.

The Big Ten and Big 12 also impressed with four teams each advancing to the regional semifinals. Thursday and Friday features only one SEC-vs.-SEC clash between Kentucky and Tennessee, meaning we are about to see a lot of SEC-Big Ten and SEC-Big 12 matchups.

You can also download our FREE college basketball printable bracket.

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