3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 5/24/24
The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.
In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.
Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Strikeout Props
Christian Scott Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-108)
The New York Mets' third-best prospect will make his fourth start in the big leagues on Friday against the San Francisco Giants. In Triple-A, Scott had excellent K numbers with a 38.3% strikeout percentage (K%) while totaling about 7.2 Ks each start.
He carried this production over to the MLB over his first two starts, posting 14 strikeouts during the span. However, this dipped in his third outing with only three Ks. Scott was pulled following the fourth inning compared to completing six innings in his first two starts. The length of his start certainly contributed to the lower strikeout total. What kind of outing will we see from Scott tonight?
The Giants have the 11th-lowest K% in the league and have totaled seven strikeouts or fewer in seven of their last eight games. Scott is in the 75th percentile of chase rate and 74th percentile for whiff rate. San Francisco has excellent plate discipline, swinging and missing on only 9.5% of pitches (fourth-lowest) while chasing 30.3% of pitches (tied for eighth-lowest).
Scott's most-used pitch is his four-seam fastball (46.1%), and San Fran is tied for the eighth-highest runs above average against this pitch. A heavy does of fastballs would be a welcomed sight for the Giants.
Considering San Francisco's low K totals over the last week and a half, I'm comfortable taking under 5.5 strikeouts for Scott. FanDuel projections has Scott's forecasted total at 4.79 Ks.
James Paxton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)
The Cincinnati Reds are dream matchup for nearly any pitcher right now, for they have totaled the 11th-fewest runs with the 3rd-lowest on-base percentage (OBP) and K%. This could be the perfect matchup for the Los Angeles Dodgers' James Paxton to elevate his strikeout numbers.
The veteran lefty has some interesting stats in his first season in L.A. Paxton has a 2.84 ERA over eight starts, but this seems to be extremely inflated. He's carrying a 5.86 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), which would be a career-low. The K department only causes more concern as Paxton is in the bottom 5% of K%, bottom 10% of whiff percentage, and bottom 25% in chase rate.
These are uncharacteristic number for Paxton, who ranked among the top half of all three categories from 2016 to 2023. The Reds could be exactly what the doctor ordered.
The Dodgers' hurler is leaning on his four-seam fastball (62.4%) and knuckle curveball (26.0%). Neither pitch should be a concern with Cincinnati touting a lowly -10.1 runs above average against fastballs (fourth-lowest) and -2.5 runs above average when facing knuckle curves (tied for fourth-lowest).
Paxton has used his knuckle curve a bit more over his previous two starts, carrying usage rates of 40.0% and 29.3%. The usage could stay up since it carries the highest whiff percentage among the vet's pitches (31.2%).
The Redlegs come off a 16-strikeout game. That's right -- 16 Ks! This team is averaging 10.6 strikeouts each contest over the last five games. Starting pitchers surpassing their K total versus the Reds goes together like peanut butter and jelly.
Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
After signing a four-year, $53 million deal in the offseason, Shota Imanaga has been worth every cent thus far. There was some risk involved with the signing as he came from Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league, where Imanaga pitched from 2016 to 2023. He's flourished thus far, becoming the favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year (-110) while touting the second-shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young award (+480).
Imanaga has a league-best 0.84 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, and 3.02 SIERA. The 30-year-old southpaw is boasting a 27.8 K% (79th percentile) and 36.1% chase rate (97th percentile). The Chicago Cubs' ace has totaled at least seven strikeouts in five consecutive appearances.
Why would we back the under considering Imanaga's dominance? The weather will likely play a big factor in the Cubs against the St. Louis Cardinals. Storms are expected to hit the area, potentially causing some delays. A shortened appearance looks likely, so going over 5.5 Ks could be too much.
Imanaga has regularly provided deep starts, pitching into the seventh inning in four of his last five outings. When he's failed to complete six innings of work, Imanaga is averaging 5.0 strikeouts each contest . This is a small sample size as the Cy Young contender has been under six innings of pitching in only three of nine starts, in which he posted 15 total Ks.
The Cardinals have some push back as they are in the top half of the lowest chase percentages while Imanaga is in the 97th percentile of the category. St. Louis also has the eighth-most runs above average against splitters, which is Imanaga's second-most used pitch (31.8%).
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.