3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 5/9/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

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The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Sonny Gray Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-113)

The St. Louis Cardinals' Sonny Gray has seen his strikeout percentage (K%) spike to 94th percentile after totaling 27 Ks over his previous three starts (9.0 strikeouts per start). However, I believe Gray has a tough matchup today against the Milwaukee Brewers.

First off, it's not easy to strike out Milwaukee. They are around the middle of the league with the 13th-highest K% and average 8.0 strikeouts per night. For reference, 8.0 Ks each contest is the 11th-lowest mark among batting orders.

The Brewers are also around the middle of the league in swinging-strike percentage (tied for 10th-lowest). This is key for a matchup against Gray as he sits in the 77th percentile of whiff rate. If Milwaukee is rarely swinging and missing, this should harm Gray's strikeout total.

Most importantly, the Brew Crew have thrived against fastballs, with the second-highest runs above average against the pitch. Gray heavily leans on fastballs as they make up 39.8% of his pitches. He even eclipsed a 40.0% usage rate for his fastball in two of his last three starts.

If Milwaukee is teeing off against heaters, this makes a short start for Gray more likely. Once again, this is more evidence for the under.

Tobias Myers Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-144)

We haven't seen much of Brewers rookie Tobias Myers. He's made only three starts in the big leagues while ranking in the bottom 32% in K%.

Myers has a K total of only 3.5 for tonight. His three starts could give us some insight for the over.

This could mostly come down to one factor: how long will Myers stay in the game?

He comes off a rough showing against the Chicago Cubs, pitching for only three inning while totaling two strikeouts. In his other two starts, Myers was in for five innings and surpassed 3.5 Ks in both. In one appearance, Milwaukee's rookie reached four Ks, and he logged five in the other.

So, will Myers be able to pitch deep against the Cardinals? I believe the answer is yes. St. Louis has scored the second-fewest runs in baseball paired with the fourth-lowest on base percentage (OBP).

Myers has used a lot of velocity as his fastball (37.3%) and cutter (24.4%) have the highest usage rates for his pitches. The Cards have the third-lowest runs above average against fastballs and eighth-lowest runs above average against cutters. The rookie right-hander could utilize both pitches to his heart's content.

Considering the matchup, Myers should be able to produce a quality outing. When he's made it into the fifth inning, Myers has posted solid strikeout totals. The over looks like the best bet.

Reid Detmers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+126)

According to FanDuel's daily MLB projections, Reid Detmers has a forecasted strikeout total of 6.55 for his matchup against the Kansas City Royals. Over 5.5 Ks for Detmers sits at +126; this is a terrific value if you agree with our projections.

There's more support for the over, as well. The Royals have the second-lowest K% in the MLB, but they jump to only the seventh-lowest K% against left-handed pitchers.

Detmers has reached seven strikeouts in four of seven starts, including his most recent appearance. Compared to the 2023 season, his fastball usage has spiked, going from 43.2% to 46.9%. This is ideal against Kansas City, who has the seventh-lowest runs above average against fastballs. Angel Stadium has also been a favorable spot for pitchers as it is tied for the fourth-most Ks among all parks.

Reaching six Ks is not a tall task for Detmers, and the +126 odds are enticing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.