3 Potential First Round Upsets in the 2025 Women’s College Basketball Tournament

The 2025 women's college basketball tournament is finally here.

Upsets are the name of the game in March. Though not every first-round upset will translate to a Cinderella run through the bracket, first round upsets can be just as exciting.

With that, here are 3 potential first round upsets in the women's college basketball tournament -- with a little help from Bart Torvik.

Any odds reference via the college basketball odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Most Likely First-Round Upsets in the Women’s Tournament

#9 Indiana Over #8 Utah (-128)

FanDuel Sportsbook may not have Indiana over Utah as an upset, but the bracket does.

Utah, despite being the 8 seed in Birmingham 2, is a 2.5-point underdog to the 9 seed, Indiana.

That adds up. Though the Hoosiers enter the tournament with a 19-11 record, they faced Bart Torvik's 11th most difficult schedule. The 22-8 Utes were only 42nd in strength of schedule.

Indiana (7-11) had a worse record but better average point differential (-2.4) against top-50 teams than Utah (5-6; -2.6).

Taking into account who they faced and how they played against them, Indiana enters the tournament ranked 28th in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) and 27th at Bart Torvik. Utah is 22nd in BPI but just 31st at Torvik.

The Utes are strong offensively (28th in adjusted offense), though their 6th-ranked effective field goal percentage drops off precipitously against top-50 opponents. Their defense is fine (34th in adjusted defense) but they're middle-of-the-road defending 3-pointers.

That's less than ideal against Indiana -- a team that's strong defensively (24th) but middling on offense (40th) outside of threes. The Hoosiers are 7th in 3-point field goal percentage and top-100 in 3-point attempt rate.

Indiana also takes away 3s on the other end, so they're an intriguing first round upset in 2025 women's college basketball brackets.

#11 Iowa State Over #6 Michigan (+104)

11 seed Iowa State is a slight underdog on FanDuel up against 6 seed Michigan, but only 16% of the public on ESPN has the Cyclones advancing.

That's likely underrating Iowa State. The Cyclones played their way into the field with a win against Princeton, but their profile is one closer to a single-digit seed. Iowa State finished 34th at Bart Torvik and features the nation's 14th-ranked adjusted offense.

Michigan is 20th overall at Torvik with a balanced attack that's top 25 on offense and defense. But they give up a high rate of 3s and plenty of assists -- both strengths of Iowa State's. The Cyclones are 2nd nationally in assist rate and 29th in 3-point field goal percentage.

The Wolverines also like to play fast, and that's something Iowa State has had success against. The Cyclones are 3-4 but sport a +1.1 average point differential against Power Conference teams in the top 100 for adjusted tempo. Michigan is 52nd.

If Iowa State can run wild in a high-possession game, they could challenge Michigan.

It doesn't hurt that ISU will have the best player on the floor, either. Sophomore center Audi Crooks is a 23-point-per-game scorer that posted 40 points in her tournament debut last season. She went for 27 in their win over Princeton.

#11 George Mason Over #6 Florida State (+176)

I outlined why I have Florida State on upset alert during Covering The Spread's women's bracket preview, but they're worth a deeper dive here.

Florida State is favored by 4.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook, and their -220 moneyline odds imply a 69% win probability. But ESPN's consensus bracket has 83% of the public on the Seminoles.

That could suggest upside with George Mason.

The Patriots only have 5 losses entering the tournament, but they're just 42nd at Torvik. They suffered a 10-point loss to the top team on their schedule (4-seeded Maryland) but also have a pair of top-100 wins against Power Conference opponents.

GM has one of the lowest turnover rates in the country and is top-25 nationally in 3-point field goal percentage.

That could play well into a Florida State side that is lackluster defensively but play at the 6th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country.

Bart Torvik's projections give George Mason a 30% chance to win outright.

You can also download our FREE college basketball printable bracket.

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