3 NHL Best Bets for Tuesday 11/5/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Calgary Flames vs. Montreal Canadiens
Canadiens Moneyline +118
Moneyline
The Montreal Canadiens and Calgary Flames have been stuck in a rut recently; however, one of those teams will have the chance to reverse course on Tuesday night. These Canadian foes tangle in La Belle Province, and there’s an edge in backing the underdog hosts at the Bell Centre.
While the results haven’t always gone their way, the Habs have looked sharp over their recent sample. Montreal has outplayed four of its last five opponents but has only two wins over that stretch. That’s resulted in a growing difference between actual and expected goals-for, implying the Canadiens are progression candidates. The Canadiens are sitting two points below their 41.1% expected goals-for rating with the seventh-worst PDO in the NHL. In reconciling those metrics, we anticipate more wins for the Habs in the immediate future.
Calgary enters tonight’s inter-conference affair in a similar form, but its metrics suggest that ongoing correction is anticipated. The Flames have outplayed their opponents in four of five, precipitating just one win. Still, the Flames’ actual goals-for rating (52.5%) remains nearly four points higher than expected (48.6%). Likewise, they’re skating around with a bloated PDO of 1.017. Consequently, they might not be done sliding just yet.
The Flames are mired in a correction phase and are undeserving of being the betting favorite in this spot. Montreal has put forth some solid efforts over its recent schedule and should start to reap the rewards of those efforts. That starts tonight, as the Canadiens’ probability of winning exceeds the implied betting price.
Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres
Senators Moneyline -120
Moneyline
Don’t look now, but the Ottawa Senators might actually be who we thought they were. One of the worst underperforming teams in the past few years, the Sens are finally off to a better-than-anticipated start to the season. That momentum carries them into tonight’s Atlantic Division battle against the perpetually struggling Buffalo Sabres.
Ottawa has been nothing short of dominant over their recent schedule. Outplaying their opponents in three straight and four of their last five, the Sens have produced an exceptional 54.5% expected goals-for rating across that five-game sample. Still, their best efforts have been on full display more recently, with the Senators exceeding 58.0% in three straight. Renewed defensive accountability has been the foundation of that success, with no opponent exceeding four high-danger chances.
The Sens’ rigid defensive structure puts the Sabres at a pronounced disadvantage. Buffalo continues to struggle to create quality scoring chances. They’ve fallen below eight high-danger chances in six straight, mustering a laughable average of just 5.8. Of more concern, the Sabres have been out-chanced in all but one of those games.
We’ve been waiting for the Senators to live up to expectations for years, and this might be the year it all comes together. If nothing else, we give Ottawa a more pronounced advantage than its current moneyline price, leaving an edge in backing the visitors in this one.
Utah Hockey Club vs. Winnipeg Jets
Utah Hockey Club Moneyline +164
Moneyline
The Winnipeg Jets are flying high 12 games into the 2024-25 season. The Central Division leaders have suffered just one loss so far, producing the best record in the NHL. However, ongoing concerns about their underwhelming analytics play suggest that the Jets are on the precipice of a correction phase. That could start in Tuesday’s intra-divisional battle versus the Utah Hockey Club.
Winnipeg continues to vastly outperform its underlying metrics. Despite putting up the 21st-best expected goals-for rating, the Jets have the best points percentage and seventh-best actual goals-for percentage. Predictably, that’s resulted in one of the most inflated PDOs in the NHL, with the Jets wielding an unsustainable 1.020 benchmark. Inevitably, those metrics will regress to expected values, implying more losses await the Jets in the immediate future.
Utah can help facilitate that regression. The NHL’s newest franchise has been playing with renewed confidence lately, but it doesn’t have the wins to back up its elite play. Recording just one win over their past six, the Utah Hockey Club plays effectively at both ends of the ice. They’ve outchanced their opponents in high-danger chances in all but two of their previous six contests. Moreover, Utah has equaled or outscored its opponents at five-on-five in four straight. Still, their outcomes don’t reflect their improved play.
Waves collide in this one. The Jets are operating well above expected, while the Utah Hockey Club is underperforming. That leaves a sizable advantage in backing Utah as meaty +164 underdogs.
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