3 NHL Best Bets for Thursday 11/7/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Nashville Predators vs. Florida Panthers
Over 6.5 (+108)
Total Goals
What were the Nashville Predators thinking? On the first night of a back-to-back, the Preds deployed starting netminder Juuse Saros against the Washington Capitals. That means that, in all likelihood, Scott Wedgewood will be tabbed as the starter for Thursday’s encounter against the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. Expect a barrage of goals in this inter-conference matchup.
Nashville couldn’t have played their cards worse. Amid a decline in their defensive metrics, they elected to start their backup netminder, who has struggled early this season. It has only been two games, but Wedgewood has an AHL-worthy .854 save percentage and a 3.54 goals-against average. That’s a worrisome profile for a Predators team that has lost focus in the defensive end. Through the first eight games over the season, Nashville gave up 7.8 high-danger chances per game. Over the past five, that number has jumped to 9.9. We’re not expecting meaningful improvement against the defending champs.
Nevertheless, the Predators will have their opportunities to cash against Sergei Bobrovsky. The Russian netminder has been on a downward trend recently. To open the season, Bobrovsky has a .892 save percentage and 3.08 goals against average, representing his anticipated regression. Through his first five seasons in Florida, Bobrovsky posted a .905 save percentage; however, that number jumped to .915 in his age-35 season last year. Inevitably, his save percentage was destined for regression, and we’re seeing that play out early in 2024-25.
Neither team can boast about their elite goaltending, which should lead to a high-scoring affair. We see an advantage in backing this one to go over the total at its current offering.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Penguins Moneyline (+210)
Moneyline
Based on the betting price alone, it seems like a near certainty the Carolina Hurricanes are destined for a win against the Pittsburgh Penguins. However, the gap between these teams isn’t as pronounced as the betting line implies. On that basis, there’s an edge in backing the Penguins as steep +210 underdogs on Thursday night.
Of course, the Hurricanes are taking care of business. Through the first month of the season, Carolina has the top-ranked expected goals-for rating, and we’ve seen the Canes ratchet that benchmark higher over their recent sample. But as good as they’ve been, goaltending remains a limiting factor for the Hurricanes. Carolina’s netminders have combined for the 22nd-ranked save percentage at five-on-five (.905), falling an entire percentage point across all strengths (.895). We expect those issues to persist against a Penguins team that has ramped production.
After a brief lull, Pittsburgh has recaptured its offensive essence. Over their past three games, the Pens have totaled 44 high-danger chances, eclipsing 15 opportunities in two of those contests. That’s akin to what we saw from them earlier in the season when they went north of 12 quality chances in six of their first eight. Still, output hasn’t caught up to their meaty production. The Penguins have scored just four goals at five-on-five across that sample for a 4.7% shooting percentage. That number doesn’t look much better across all strengths, jumping modestly to 7.7%.
Pittsburgh is due for a substantial shift in their output, and the Hurricanes’ goalies will be happy to oblige. Backing the Pens as underdogs in this spot is advantageous for bettors.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings
60-Minute Tie (+350)
The Los Angeles Kings have an axe to grind, and they’ve been ready to swing it at every opportunity this season. Off to a commendable 8-3-3 start to the season, LA has the metrics to back up sustained success. Still, their resolve will be tested against a mighty Vancouver Canucks team that is playing their best hockey of the season.
The Kings aren’t letting a daunting schedule prevent them from reaching their ceiling. Los Angeles will be playing their 15th game of the season on Thursday night, but they’ve been one of the best teams in the league early this season. Already, they have the second-ranked expected goals-for-percentage, accumulating a sterling 59.2% mark. But we’ve seen that rating climb over the Kings' more recent schedule. Across their previous three contests, LA has put together a jaw-dropping 70.2% eGF rating, supporting ongoing short-term and long-term success.
If there’s one team that can compete with the Kings right now, it’s the Vancouver Canucks. The reigning Pacific Division champs have been operating on another level lately. Vancouver has outplayed its opponents, yielding an impressive expected goals-for rating of 55.7%, the fourth-best in the NHL.
Both the Kings and Canucks are playing a seemingly unbeatable brand of hockey right now, a fact that’s reflected in the betting price. We don’t expect either team to abandon their current form in this one. As a result, it should take longer than 60 minutes to determine a winner, leaving an edge in betting this one to go to overtime or a shootout.
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