3 NHL Best Bets for Sunday 11/10/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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San Jose Sharks vs. New Jersey Devils
Over 6.5 (-106)
After a typically busy Saturday slate, there are only three matchups on Sunday’s docket. Among those, the San Jose Sharks will try to reverse course on another underwhelming start to the season. Standing in their way is a dangerous New Jersey Devils side that has leveled up its offensive play over their recent schedule.
The Sharks’ issues start on their end. They’ve been one of the most defensively inept teams in the NHL over the past few seasons, and the Sharks have lowered the bar with their recent performances. Over their past five outings, San Jose has given up no fewer than nine high-danger chances per game. More concerningly, three of those five opponents have hit double-digits, yielding 11.6 per game. Sharks’ goalies withstood the test earlier, but they’re starting to come unglued. Coming off a 5-2 shellacking, we’re betting the Sharks get torched by the Devils on Sunday night.
New Jersey is coming off a four-goal performance against the New York Islanders on Saturday night. That was the 14th time in 17 games this season that the Devils have recorded at least three goals in a contest. Their young nucleus is scoring at will, recording the eighth-best shooting percentage this season and finding the back of the net on 12.3% of shots. An anticipated surge in scoring chances against the inferior Sharks should boost output at home.
Unfortunately for the Devils, their goaltending hasn’t played with the same enthusiasm as their offense. Collectively, New Jersey goalies have an 89.7% save percentage on the season, improving only modestly to 90.6% at five-on-five. The primary netminder, Jacob Markstrom, got the nod last night, meaning Jake Allen will be tasked with containing the Sharks on Sunday. As a result, we’re expecting goals to flow freely, with this one potentially sailing over the total.
Minnesota Wild vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Wild Moneyline (-188)
A 2-2-1 start to the season was quickly undone by a 3-7-0 run, which has dropped the Chicago Blackhawks to the bottom of the Central Division standings. With their metrics in disarray, things won’t get any easier when they host the Minnesota Wild on Sunday night.
Chicago is falling apart. Their offensive production is waning, and they’ve abandoned all defensive responsibility. Over their past five games, the Blackhawks have tallied more than eight high-danger chances only once. Worse, they’ve given up 11 or more quality chances in all but one of those outings. That resulted in a 35.4% high-danger chance rating, eroding their expected goals-for benchmark. Across the same five-game sample, Chicago is down to a 40.3% eGF rating.
Minnesota isn’t an analytics juggernaut, but we’ve seen the best the Wild have to offer more recently. They’ve out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances in three of the past five outings, which has sent their expected goals-for rating soaring. The Wild have posted game scores above 60.0% in all but two of those contests, resulting in a cumulative 51.9% rating.
While the Hawks have been at their worst, Minnesota has seen ratcheted-up production. That imbalance gives the Wild a significant edge in this one.
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Anaheim Ducks
Blue Jackets Moneyline (-102)
Don’t look now, but the Columbus Blue Jackets are turning a corner. Columbus is starting to find its rhythm after ranking as one of the worst teams over the last couple of years. They have an advantage that is not yet reflected in the betting price when they take on the Anaheim Ducks at the Honda Center.
Lately, the Jackets have asserted themselves on both ends of the ice. They’re up to 37 high-danger chances over their previous three contests, surpassing 13 opportunities in two of three. Moreover, they’ve held opponents to a combined 26 high-danger opportunities, with only one team eclipsing six chances. Predictably, those improved efforts correlate with increasing expected goals-for ratings. Still, winning outcomes have eluded the Blue Jackets in all three games.
Defensively, the Ducks are cooked. Anaheim has given up more than ten quality opportunities in four of five, precipitating a robust opponent average of 13.2 per game. The more concerning trend is that the Ducks have been out-chanced in all but one of those contests and produced a laughable 42.1% expected goals-for rating along the way.
There should only be a handful of games this season with the Ducks priced as favorites, and this isn’t one of those spots. We give the advantage to Columbus, with their improved efforts finally paying off in SoCal.
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