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3 NHL Best Bets for Sunday 10/20/24

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3 NHL Best Bets for Sunday 10/20/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Winnipeg Jets

Jets Moneyline (-162)

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It is time to start fading the Pittsburgh Penguins. After a 3-1-0 stretch that revitalized their early-season campaign, the Pens’ metrics are starting to erode. Well-rested and hunkered down at home, the Winnipeg Jets will be ready for whatever the Penguins throw their way on Sunday.

Pittsburgh’s analytics have taken a turn for the worse. Specifically, the Pens have abandoned their defensive responsibility, which is starting to cost them games. On Friday, they gave up 18 high-danger chances to the Carolina Hurricanes, marking the third straight game in which their opponent hit double-digits. Combined with their anticipated offensive regression, the Penguins will be hard-pressed to win games.

Those concerns will be brought to the forefront when Pittsburgh travels north of the border for an inter-conference showdown against the Jets. The Central Division contenders have stymied opponents all season. Winnipeg hasn’t given up more than nine high-danger chances in their four outings, posting a paltry average of 6.8 per game. Moreover, they’ve out-chanced their opponents in scoring opportunities in three straight, giving the Jets an advantage on both ends of the ice.

The Penguins are still getting credit for their hot run, but we expect a few sub-optimal performances as they embark on a four-game Western Canada road trip. Their defense is collapsing, and they’re about to take on some of the most gifted offensive teams in the league. There’s an edge in backing the Jets at a moderate price for now.

Colorado Avalanche vs. San Jose Sharks

Avalanche Moneyline (-275)

Moneyline

Oct 21 12:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The San Jose Sharks are back in action on Sunday evening, trying to find a way to shake out of their early-season funk. The problem is, they’re taking on a dominant Colorado Avalanche squad that outmatches them in every facet of the game. As a result, the Avs' chances of walking away victorious are much better than the betting odds imply.

The Avalanche are gaining momentum. Finally, they snapped out of their mini-drought, defeating the Anaheim Ducks in overtime last time out. While it’s a promising step in the right direction, Colorado has been performing at an elite level every time it steps on the ice. The Avs have outplayed their opponents in every game this season, producing a 57.9% expected goals-for rating, the third-best mark in the NHL. Their efficiency has shone on both ends of the ice, yielding 56.4% scoring and 58.6% high-danger chances ratings.

The Sharks are floundering on the opposite end of the analytics spectrum. San Jose has put forth the sixth-worst expected goals-for rating this season, getting outplayed in all but one game. Amplifying those concerns, the Sharks have mustered a laughable 26 scoring and 8 high-danger chances combined in their past two games. Colorado put up eight high-danger chances in the second period alone last game against the Ducks.

This is a highly flattering line for the Sharks; the moneyline price of -275 yields an implied probability of 73.3%. While high, it’s still not an accurate representation of the Avs’ chances against the Sharks. On that basis, there’s value on Colorado.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Anaheim Ducks

Ducks Moneyline (+140)

Moneyline

Anaheim Ducks
Oct 21 12:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

A classic SoCal rivalry punctuates the three-game Sunday slate with the Anaheim Ducks taking on the Los Angeles Kings at the Honda Center. The Kings return to the West Coast after an underwhelming five-game stretch against Eastern Conference foes. That sets up as a flat spot against a tough Ducks squad.

LA dropped three of five games to open the season, albeit with two losses coming in overtime. Still, they’ve been unable to tilt the ice in their favor as the visitors consistently. The Kings have out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances just twice to open the season. Combined with their typically conservative offense, the Kings have struck an unsustainable balance with their early-season outcomes. That puts them on the regression side of the spectrum, with the actual goals-for rating hovering a few points above expected.

As is typically the case, ineffective defensive zone coverage has limited the Ducks’ ceiling this season, but we don’t expect that to be a limiting factor against the Kings. LA prefers to play a more opportunistic brand of hockey, emphasizing defensive zone coverage over increased scoring chances. That should allow the Ducks to dictate the pace and continue to extract maximum value from their offense as we’ve already seen this season.

The Kings are meaty road favorites despite playing their sixth straight game on the road and traveling across the continent. That scheduling snafu should allow the Ducks to settle into the comforts of home ice against a beleaguered Kings side. While Los Angeles is the better team, they shouldn’t be this heavily favored in this spot.


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