3 NHL Best Bets for Saturday 10/12/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Florida Panthers vs. Buffalo Sabres

Sabres Moneyline (+114)

We're three games into the season, and the Buffalo Sabres are already ready to push the panic button. Buffalo dropped both games overseas, returning stateside only to drop their home opener to the Los Angeles Kings. As bad as the outcomes have been, the Sabres’ analytics point toward a bounce back in the short term. That progression should start in Saturday’s tilt versus the Florida Panthers.

The Sabres’ output doesn’t match their production. They’ve reached 12 high-danger chances in two of their first three games but only have 3 goals to show for their efforts. Consequently, the Sabres have a deflated 3.7% shooting percentage, which will inevitably start to increase over the coming games. We’re betting that progression starts against a Panthers side that is projected to have some deficits in their own end.

Now, in his age-36 season, Sergei Bobrovsky is on the decline. He overachieved relative to career norms last season, surpassing his goals saved above average from the past six years combined. We’ve seen those cracks start to emerge in his first two starts with the Panthers netminder posting a 3.04 goals against average and 89.7% save percentage. Sadly, that’s what we should expect from Bobrovsky throughout the season.

Buffalo has posted expected goals-for ratings above 55.7% in two of its first three games this season. Still, they have yet to triumph over anyone thanks to diminished scoring. We’re anticipating a flood of goals for the Sabres, yielding more prosperous outcomes on the ice. That upward trajectory should begin against the Panthers.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 6.5 (-112)

There’s nothing quite like Sidney Crosby taking on the Toronto Maple Leafs as part of Hockey Night in Canada -- but the narrative doesn’t end there. Pittsburgh Penguins GM Kyle Dubas infamously departed the Leafs organization last offseason when he couldn’t broker a deal with Toronto’s brass. Surely, revenge will be on his mind as the Pens and Leafs get down to business.

Pittsburgh was outclassed in its season opener, dropping a 6-0 decision at home to the New York Rangers. While they responded appropriately against the Detroit Red Wings, there are a couple of trends worth noting. First, the Rangers skated laps around the Penguins, attempting 20 high-danger chances at five-on-five. That defensive inadequacy will haunt the Pens all season but particularly against a high-powered Leafs offense. Second, ineffective defensive play didn’t come at the expense of offense. The Pens still managed 12 high-danger chances in each of their first two games, highlighting their still-elite production metrics.

Getting into a run-and-gun showdown plays right into the Maple Leafs’ strengths. The Original Six franchise dropped 18 high-danger chances on the Montreal Canadiens in the first game of the season, following that up with nine more as the visitors against the New Jersey Devils. But, Toronto doesn’t have the output to match their production. They are nearly five goals below their expected total, supporting increased scoring lies on the horizon.

Goals will flow naturally in this interdivisional battle. On that basis, there’s an edge in backing this one to go over the total.

Seattle Kraken vs. Minnesota Wild

Kraken Moneyline (+114)

We know what to expect from the Minnesota Wild every time they step on the ice. Minnesota is happy to sit back and play a defense-first brand of hockey, placing more emphasis on preventing chances than creating them. But as we saw last year, that’s not conducive to today’s NHL. They’ll have their hands full again on Saturday night trying to quell a dangerous Seattle Kraken side.

Minnesota started the year off with an uneventful 3-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets; however, their metrics were even more disappointing. The Wild mustered a paltry six high-danger and 16 scoring chances in the win. Sadly, we’re not anticipating meaningful growth from the Wild, as they finished in the bottom half of the league in both categories last year.

Moreover, Minnesota faces a daunting task in grounding the Kraken. Seattle delivered 38 scoring and 21 high–danger chances on opening night but still ended up on the losing end of a 3-2 decision. We’ve got the Kraken earmarked for progression in 2024-25 as the NHL’s newest team fell below their expected goals-for rating last season. Their first effort of the year is indicative of what to expect moving forward, and we see improved results in the short term.

Minnesota’s systems have proven to be ineffective in the modern NHL. They experienced a setback last year and that downward trajectory is unlikely to improve in 2024-25. Even at a short home price, it’s easy to rationalize the Kraken in this one.

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