3 NHL Best Bets for Monday 10/28/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Florida Panthers vs. Buffalo Sabres

Sabres Moneyline +128

With their hot start to the 2024-25 campaign, the Florida Panthers are disproving the theory of the championship hangover. The reigning champs are 6-3-1 to open the season, but some concerning trends are emerging in their underlying metrics. A Buffalo Sabres side that appears to be finding its rhythm and identity could expose those.

Winners of three of their past four, the Panthers have moved to the front of the pack in a crowded Atlantic Division. However, their scorching offense has offset some defensive concerns that could hold back the Panthers. Florida has given up 10 or more high-danger chances in four of its past five, getting out-chanced in all but two of those contests. While they’ve gotten the most out of their offense, the Panthers can’t sustain the 15.8% shooting percentage we’ve seen over the past few games.

A Sabres squad that’s tightened its defensive britches could facilitate that anticipated regression. Buffalo has held three of its last four opponents to seven or fewer high-danger chances. Pointing the lens further back reveals a more stable trend, with only three of their nine opponents this season exceeding seven quality chances in a game. Predictably, that’s resulted in an improved save percentage, with Sabres' goalies combining for a 91.3% save percentage at five-on-five.

Florida is operating at an unsustainable pace, and the Sabres possess the defensive structure and goaltending to halt that scoring. The gap between these two teams is shrinking, but the price on the Panthers is still higher than it should be.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Winnipeg Jets

Maple Leafs Moneyline +100

Analytically, these teams couldn’t be positioned on further ends of the spectrum.

One of the pioneers of advanced metrics, the Toronto Maple Leafs have consistently ranked as the pre-eminent analytics power. Conversely, the Winnipeg Jets shoot from the hip and extract maximum value from their skilled players. That’s gotten the Jets off to a tremendous 8-0-0 start to the season, but they might be out-matched by the Maple Leafs on Monday night.

Winnipeg’s unbeaten start to the season mgith soon head the other way due to impending regression. The Jets rank 25th out of 32 teams with an expected goals-for rating of 46.9%. Moreover, they’ve been out-played in all but two of their eight games this season, underscoring the unsustainable nature of their wins. Correction is inevitable eventually.

Toronto has out-chanced its opponents in scoring chances in four of five, a stretch that has yielded just one win. While they’ve posted a lackluster 48.9% expected goals-for rating across the five-game sample, the Leafs are operating 8.0 percentage points below that, with an actual goals-for rating of 40.9%. We should see those metrics balance out over the coming games, precipitating more wins for Toronto.

Scheduling-wise, the Jets are at a disadvantage on Monday night. Winnipeg returns home after a three-game road trip, setting up tonight’s inter-conference affair as a possible flat spot for the hosts. Starting tonight, the Maple Leafs can translate their superior on-ice product into more wins.

San Jose Sharks vs. Utah Hockey Club

Under 5.5 +116

Bettors have taken a firm stance on the over in Monday’s Western Conference clash between the San Jose Sharks and Utah Hockey Club. However, that confidence appears to be misplaced. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut, with both preferring defense-first systems. As a result, there could be advantage in backing this contest to stay beneath the total.

Unfortunately for the Sharks, they continue to have one of the worst offenses in the NHL. At five-on-five, San Jose has been kept off the scoresheet in three of their previous four. Consequently, their team shooting percentage has dipped to 5.9% this season, which -- sadly -- isn’t a substantial deviation from last year’s benchmark of 7.1%. Further, an increase in output likely isn’t on the horizon. The Sharks have been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances in all but one game this season, producing just 7.6 per game.

That’s akin to what Utah is producing. The NHL’s newest club has totaled 29 quality chances across its past four outings, falling below eight such opportunities in three of four. That puts the Utah Hockey Club on par with the Sharks’ offensive production, averaging 7.3 high-danger chances per game.

Despite the offensive struggles, both teams have been effective at corralling opponents on the defensive end. No team has exceeded nine high-danger chances in any of Utah’s past four games, with three of those teams tallying five or fewer. San Jose has been slightly less effective, but it has still held four of six opponents to eight or fewer.

This game could be played almost exclusively in the neutral zone. Neither team takes offensive risks, and both systems are premised on responsible defensive zone play. That could lead to a lower-scoring game without many good scoring chances.

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