3 NHL Best Bets for Friday 11/8/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs Moneyline (-182)
Moneyline
Nothing beats an Original Six matchup. The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Detroit Red Wings on Friday night, pitting two blue-blood franchises against each other. The betting market has installed the Leafs as -182 favorites. But as we’ll see, that price doesn’t reflect their chances of walking away victorious.
Toronto has been dominant over its recent schedule. The Maple Leafs have outplayed four of their past five opponents, yielding a significantly improved expected goals-for rating. Across their more recent sample, the Leafs have posted a 60.0% rating, bringing their season-long average up to 53.2%. Known for their offense, it’s the Leafs’ defense that has emerged as the driving factor in their success.
The Maple Leafs have held all but one of their previous five opponents to five or fewer high-danger chances. That will be troublesome for a disappointing Red Wings offense. Detroit has been held to five or fewer high-danger chances in four of five, hampering its outlook against the Leafs.
Detroit’s offense can’t get going on the best of days, and we’re anticipating resistance against the Leafs. Toronto plays a rigid game in the defending zone, and the Red Wings have been unable to break through weaker teams’ defenses. That leaves an edge in backing the Leafs.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Seattle Kraken
Golden Knights Moneyline (-142)
Moneyline
The NHL’s two most recent expansion franchises take to the ice for a pivotal Pacific Division battle on Friday night. The reeling Seattle Kraken host the surging Vegas Golden Knights at Climate Pledge Arena. Vegas enters as short road favorites, but the betting price should be tilted further in their direction.
Seattle has looked awful over the past couple of weeks. The Kraken have been outplayed in all but one of their past six, precipitating one of the worst expected goals-for ratings in the NHL. Their 45.6% mark is sixth-worst in the NHL, putting them at a deficit against a Knights side that is on their way up.
After a slow start, Vegas is finding its analytics footing. The Golden Knights have outplayed their opponents in three of the past four, dominating at both ends of the ice. Across the four-game sample, the Knights have established a 55.5% expected goals-for rating but have come up short of that in terms of actual output. Their 54.4% actual goals-for rating leaves them short of anticipated, which is also reflected in their .991 PDO.
It’s a small sample, but the recent results support that the Golden Knights are progression candidates. They’ve finally tilted the ice in their direction, but the outcomes don’t reflect their on-ice dominance. On that basis, this line should continue to move in Vegas’ direction.
Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Ducks
Under 6.5 (-142)
Total Goals
Two of the worst offensive teams in the league battle it out in Southern California. The 4-6-2 Anaheim Ducks welcome the upstart Minnesota Wild to town in a game that could be played almost exclusively in the neutral zone.
While the Wild have seen a boost in output lately, that uptick in scoring is contraindicated in their underlying metrics. Minnesota has tallied 22 goals across its past six outings but has done so without meaningful offensive production. They’ve been limited to nine or fewer high-danger chances in all but one of those contests, averaging a lackluster 6.7 opportunities per game. As a result, their shooting percentage has been elevated to 16.7% at five-on-five. Immediate correction is anticipated, which will inevitably result in lower-scoring games.
Still, the Ducks don’t possess the offensive faculties to break away. Anaheim has the third-lowest expected goals-for mark in the league and has failed to reach that ineffective level. So far this season, they’re averaging 1.93 expected goals at five-on-five per game and have converted a disastrous 1.08 actual goals per game. They may eventually become progression candidates, but we have yet to see increased output in their underlying metrics. Anaheim has been held to an average of 7.0 high-danger chances per game over its previous six contests while getting out-chanced in all but one of those outings.
The Ducks have been flightless lately, and the Wild are destined for offensive regression. Consequently, goals should be in short supply in what could be a low-scoring affair at the Honda Center.
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