3 NHL Best Bets for Friday 10/11/24
![3 NHL Best Bets for Friday 10/11/24](/research/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.sanity.io%2Fimages%2Fpbwem9y5%2Fch_production%2Ff484ef708ecadff392cd62af81ee5034e5b010f4-3212x2141.jpg%3Frect%3D0%2C457%2C3212%2C1589%26w%3D964%26h%3D477&w=1920&q=100)
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Hurricanes Moneyline -146
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes are two of the last teams to take to the ice for their season openers. Nevertheless, the Canes welcome the Bolts to the Lenovo Center on Friday night in what should be a wildly entertaining contest.
Analytically, Carolina has a substantive advantage. Year after year, the Hurricanes rank among the league leaders in every facet of the games. They play a stifling defensive system without compromising offensive opportunities, making the Canes one of the most dangerous teams in the league. That advantage is best captured in last year’s expected goals-for rating of 56.9%, which was second-best across the NHL.
While the Lightning have been a top-end team for many years, some of their success is contraindicated by their metrics. Tampa Bay ranked in the league's bottom half last season, posting the 21st-ranked expected goals-for rating of 49.0%. Still, they managed a playoff-caliber 59.8% winning percentage, putting them on unsustainable ground.
The Bolts’ success was driven by hot goaltending and special teams production, neither of which are sustainable measures for winning games. A changing roster that doesn’t possess the same scoring power as last year will compound those issues.
Carolina has an advantage that’s not yet captured in the betting price. On that basis, there’s an implied advantage in backing the home team.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Vancouver Canucks
Over 6.5 -106
We saw how feeble the Vancouver Canucks looked in Wednesday night’s overtime loss to the Calgary Flames. The reigning Pacific Division champs blew a 4-1 lead, getting out-scored 5-1 over the final two frames. Ineffective goaltending combined with elite offensive production is a recipe for another high-scoring affair against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Vancouver’s offense showed no signs of rust in the season's first game. The Canucks were buzzing all night long, creating 13 high-danger chances at five-on-five and producing a 60.1% expected goals-for rating. That wasn’t enough to offset their goaltending woes, with Arturs Siloves getting shelled for six goals on 20 shots. Sadly, that could be the standard to expect with Thatcher Demko on the shelf.
Keep an eye on the Flyers this year. Philadelphia vastly underachieved relative to expected metrics, posting a 46.9% actual goals-for rating, nearly six points off their expected benchmark of 52.4%. Offense was a driving force in their analytics success, with Philadelphia sitting in the top ten in high-danger chances and Corsi rating.
Goals should come easily in this inter-conference affair. Both teams feature dynamic offenses, but goaltending inhibits their ceiling. As such, we’re projecting a high-scoring battle in Vancouver.
St. Louis Blues vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Golden Knights Moneyline -215
The St. Louis Blues did something to piss off the NHL schedule makers. While some teams have yet to play in the regular season, the Blues are already onto their third game, skating for the third time in four nights. That puts them at a significant disadvantage against the Vegas Golden Knights.
As usual, scoring depth was one of the Knights’ most valuable assets against the Colorado Avalanche. Twelve players found their way onto the scoresheet on Wednesday night, with three skaters recording multiple goals. We’re anticipating a similar result against a Blues side that let the lowly San Jose Sharks tally four goals on Thursday night.
Even though the Blues handled their goaltending situation appropriately, that doesn’t offer any reprieve against Vegas. Jordan Binnington is projected to be back between the pipes, but he’ll be shelled again by a potent Knights attack. St. Louis gave up a jaw-dropping 21 high-danger chances at five-on-five against the Seattle Kraken, even allowing the San Jose Sharks to put up eight last night.
Exhaustion and ineffective play point toward the Golden Knights running away with this one. Vegas enjoys the benefits of resting at home while the Blues rush between cities to open the year. This line should tilt toward the home side as the day progresses.
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