3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 11/27/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Minnesota Wild vs. Buffalo Sabres
Wild Moneyline (-134)
Moneyline
The NHL has conceded the schedule to the football on Thanksgiving, meaning they’ve loaded up with a full 15-game schedule on Wednesday night. That smorgasbord includes an inter-conference tilt between the Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres. Early action has been taken on the Wild, but the line should continue to move as we approach puck drop.
They may be coming off consecutive losses, but the Wild have proven they are ready to compete for the Central Division crown and more. While Minnesota has a respectable 5-2-2 record over its past nine, the Wild’s metrics support that they are due for more wins. Minny has outplayed six of nine opponents over that stretch, yielding a 53.0% expected goals-for rating. Despite analytic success, the Wild have yet to reap the rewards of their improved product. We’re anticipating a surge in puck luck over their coming games.
The Sabres’ luck could be trending in the opposite direction. Buffalo has rattled off wins in three straight despite eroding metrics. They’ve been out-chanced in high-danger opportunities in three of their past four, with all but one of those opponents reaching double-digits. Not surprisingly, this has cratered their expected goals-for rating. The Sabres are skating around with a deflated 44.1% expected eGF%, over a 4-point drop from their season-long average of 48.5%.
Buffalo's recent surge is contraindicated in its underlying metrics. As a result, we’re anticipating a reversal of fortunes over their coming games. Conversely, the Wild are poised for more wins with sustained efforts. Those waves collide, and there’s value in backing Minnesota to come out on top.
Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Capitals Moneyline (+120)
Moneyline
Two of the Eastern Conference’s best go toe-to-toe on Wednesday night as the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Washington Capitals. Tampa Bay is coming off its most commanding win of the season, but it’s unlikely they will replicate that success against a feisty Capitals squad.
After a week-long lull in which they were outplayed in five straight games, the Caps have bounced back with some more sincere efforts. Washington has tilted the ice in its favor, outplaying its past two opponents. Their success is grounded in improved play at both ends of the ice. The Caps have exceeded ten high-danger chances in three straight while holding their last two foes to seven high-danger chances or fewer.
The Lightning have seen a surge in scoring lately that isn’t substantiated by improved metrics. Over their past five games, the Bolts have totaled 23 goals, falling below 18 scoring and nine high-danger chances in three of those contests. Consequently, Tampa’s shooting percentage has increased to an unsustainable 14.4% at five-on-five and 14.9% across all strengths. Inevitably, those benchmarks will fall, and more losses will follow.
Tampa Bay is on the precipice of a correction phase. They’ve seen a massive increase in scoring that isn’t supported by underlying metrics, implying the Bolts are regression candidates. Our analysis supports the Caps' trending in the opposite direction, giving them the edge in this one.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche Moneyline (-170)
Moneyline
The Vegas Golden Knights aren’t the unbeatable juggernauts everyone expects them to be. Granted, they're off to a Pacific Division-best 14-6-2 record to start the season. Still, those wins are grounded in unsustainable metrics and special teams scoring. That puts them at a significant disadvantage as they try to get past the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday night.
Somehow, the Golden Knights have lowered the analytics bar with their most recent efforts. Vegas has been outplayed in all but two of its previous nine contests, precipitating a 47.3% expected goals-for rating. That’s dropped them to 24th in the league with a 47.6% benchmark throughout the season. The Knights’ actual goals-for rating of 54.1% is a substantial deviation from their expected goals, implying that the Pacific Division leaders are regression candidates in the short term.
After languishing through the early part of the campaign, the Avs have returned to their winning ways. Colorado has won in six of eight, a hot streak supported by improved metrics. The Avalanche have positive relative metrics in possession, shots, and scoring chances, anchored in improved defensive zone structure.
Vegas’ skilled players have offset its ineffective metrics, but the Knights will meet their match against the Avalanche. Colorado has tidied up its defensive play, which will be used to limit the Knights’ attack. Ultimately, the current moneyline price doesn’t reflect the Avs’ chances of walking away victorious, leaving an edge in backing the hosts.
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