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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 11/20/24

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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 11/20/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs Moneyline -124

An impressive 5-1-1 stretch has elevated the Toronto Maple Leafs to second in the Atlantic Division, but they’re not yet done with their ascent. Toronto hosts the Vegas Golden Knights, pitting two of the top offensive teams in the league against each other. The difference is that Toronto has production propping up its scoring metrics and a defensive structure to limit its opponents at home.

Moneyline

Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 21 12:45am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

You’ll find the Maple Leafs near the top of most advanced metrics. They have above-average shots-for and scoring-chance ratings, ranking as one the best in high-danger chance percentage. Predictably, that correlates with a solid 51.5% expected goals-for rating, a benchmark they’ve surpassed in six of their past 10 games. The Leafs remain a stout defensive team, holding all but one of those opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances.

While their production has deteriorated somewhat over the past few games, the Leafs are poised for a strong showing against the defensively bankrupt Golden Knights. Vegas gets trampled in its own end, ranking fifth-last in high-danger chances allowed. That benchmark has taken a significant hit more recently, with six of the Knights’ past seven opponents attempting at least 10 such chances. More concerningly, the former expansion franchise allows an average of 12.4 high-danger chances across that seven-game sample.

The Maple Leafs’ best asset is their skilled forwards. Playing at home against a porous Golden Knights side amplifies their outlook.

Nashville Predators vs. Seattle Kraken

Kraken Moneyline +112

The Nashville Predators conclude a five-game road trip with a stop in the Emerald City on Wednesday night. Nashville finally got back on the winning track last time out; however, their triumph may be short-lived as they take on an unsuspecting Seattle Kraken side on the road.

Moneyline

Seattle Kraken
Nov 21 3:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Nashville’s ineffective play is substantiated by some of its league-worst metrics. The Preds have negative relative metrics nearly across the board. Besides a lackluster 50.4% Corsi rating, they have below-average standings in shots-for, scoring chance, and high-danger chance ratings. As expected, that’s resulted in a 48.7% expected goals-for rating, the 12th-worst mark in the NHL.

Their season-long metrics rank below the Predators' numbers, but more recently, the Kraken have been buoyed by some superb efforts. Over their past six games, they’ve outplayed their opponents on four occasions and produced an improved 50.2% expected goals-for rating. That upward trend should continue as they take on a road-weary Predators team while Seattle plays their fifth consecutive match on home ice.

The Preds are still getting credit for what everyone expects them to be, not for their actual on-ice product. They’re undeserving of their road favorite status against the surging Kraken.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Los Angeles Kings

Under 6.5 -142

The Los Angeles Kings are skating around with a chip on their shoulder. Constantly overlooked in the Western Conference, the Kings are out to prove that they can skate with the best of them in the NHL. Defense is the name of the game for the Kings, but that’s an energy the Buffalo Sabres can match when these foes take to the ice on Wednesday.

Total Goals

Under
Nov 21 3:40am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

As usual, the Kings’ systems are premised on responsible defensive play, and that’s evident over their recent sample. LA has held all but one of its past 12 opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances, with none of those opponents surpassing 23 scoring opportunities. As expected, those efforts have helped the Kings cement themselves as one of the pre-eminent defensive powerhouses across the NHL. Heading into tonight’s action, LA allows the fifth-fewest scoring chances and the third-fewest high-dancer chances per game.

Surprisingly, the Sabres have finally embraced a more defensively responsible system. While Buffalo hasn’t mastered defense like the Kings have, the Sabres still rank in the top 10 in most defensive categories, including scoring chances and high-danger chances allowed. Moreover, we’ve seen a more impenetrable approach over their recent schedule. Three of Buffalo’s last four opponents have been held to seven or fewer high-danger chances, with none of those teams eclipsing 22 scoring opportunities.

Scoring chances will likely be at a premium at Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday. Neither the Kings nor the Sabres give up much ground in the defending zone, with both teams taking a more passive offensive approach. Consequently, the most valuable edge is backing this one to stay beneath the total.


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