3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 11/19/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Penguins Moneyline (+134)

Things haven’t gone the Pittsburgh Penguins' way this year, and the betting market has finally lost faith in them. However, that swing in price has created a more substantive advantage in backing the Pens, particularly in tonight’s Eastern Conference showdown versus the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Despite the deluge of losses, Pittsburgh has been one of the better analytics teams in the league. Their 52.2% expected goals-for rating is the tenth-best mark in the NHL and is on the rise over their more recent sample. The Pens have outplayed their opponents in four straight, yielding a 56.1% rating. Offensive production drives that improved on-ice product, with the Pens attempting at least 11 high-danger chances each time out. Still, output doesn’t match production, and we expect a surge in the Penguins’ scoring in the short term.

While the floodgates might not burst open against the Lightning, we’re forecasting an impressive showing from the hosts. The Bolts aren’t a dominant analytics team. They sit in the bottom half of the NHL in expected goals for rating, getting outplayed in four of their past seven. Limited offensive production has limited the Lightning’s offensive success this year. The Lightning have been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances in five of seven, yielding 14 goals at five-on-five across the seven-game sample.

A well-performing Penguins team should expose those analytic shortcomings. This is an advantageous spot to back the progression-bound Penguins a plus-money.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Ottawa Senators

60-Minute Tie (+360)

Two of the top analytics teams in the NHL go toe-to-toe on Tuesday as the Ottawa Senators host the Edmonton Oilers on the second night of a back-to-back. The betting price has swung wildly in this one, with the Sens going from +118 to -114 overnight, but we like the Oilers' chances of leaving the Canadian Tire Centre with at least a point.

The Oilers were caught flat-footed on Monday night. Edmonton mustered just four high-danger chances against the Montreal Canadiens, a steep departure from their standard of 10.1. Consequently, we anticipate a vastly improved effort in tonight’s inter-conference affair. Moreover, they managed their goaltending situation appropriately, reserving primary netminder Stuart Skinner for Tuesday’s contest.

Similarly, the Senators need a quality performance. Ottawa is coming off a humbling 4-0 defeat versus the Carolina Hurricanes and has seen dwindling production across its recent sample. The playoff hopefuls haven’t exceeded nine high-danger chances since a November 5th tilt versus the Buffalo Sabres, mustering an average of 7.5 over their past six games.

While their recent efforts don’t reflect their dominance, the Sens and Oilers rank in the top five in expected goals for rating on the season. Expect both teams to be at their best in tonight’s contest, so we're backing it to go to overtime or a shootout.

New York Islanders vs. Calgary Flames

Islanders Moneyline (-110)

The Calgary Flames have been one of the most surprising teams in the league this year. Widely projected to be among the Western Conference bottom-feeders, the Flames are three games above .500 and currently sitting fourth in the Pacific Division. Much like they have overachieved relative to expectations, the Flames are also outperforming their underlying metrics. That puts them at a significant disadvantage versus the New York Islanders on Tuesday.

Winners of two of its past three, Calgary has been substantially outplayed in all three contests. The Flames have produced game scores below 40.0% in all three contests for an average of 38.6%. Unsustainable goaltending has helped them overcome those lackluster efforts but has put the Flames on a collision course with regression. Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar have combined for a .975 save percentage at five-on-five and .956 across all strengths, significantly ahead of career norms.

Flames goalies will face an unrelenting Islanders attack on Tuesday night. New York has eclipsed 11 high-danger chances in four of its previous five. Not surprisingly, that’s precipitated an increase in scoring, with the Islanders tallying 17 goals across the five-game sample.

We give the Islanders the edge in this one. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, and they should have no problem maintaining that standard against the Flames. New York’s chances of leaving Alberta with a win are better than the betting line implies.

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