3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 1/14/25
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins
Bruins Moneyline (+116)
Moneyline
There's a growing sense of discontentment in the Boston Bruins camp, which has impacted their on-ice product. Still, the Bruins aren’t as bad as they’ve shown recently, and we have them earmarked as progression candidates ahead of their tilt versus the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Boston is coming off its worst performance of the season. The B’s put up a paltry 12 scoring and 4 high-danger chances in their latest outing, contributing to a 21.6% expected goals-for rating. That represents the fourth time they’ve fallen below 39.0% in three of their past four outings, culminating in a 37.8% eGF rating. Boston is substantially below where expected and should progress in the immediate future.
While the Bolts have won in two of their past three, their efforts haven’t improved. Tampa Bay has been outplayed in all three contests, yielding below-average game scores in all three outings. Altogether, their actual goals-for rating of 55.6% puts them substantially ahead of expected (42.0%), making the Lightning regression candidates.
Neither team looks exceptional lately, but the Lightning shouldn’t be priced this far ahead of the Bruins. On that basis, we see an edge in backing the underdog hosts at plus money.
Dallas Stars vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Maple Leafs Moneyline (+105)
Moneyline
The betting market has taken a firm stance against the Toronto Maple Leafs as they welcome the Dallas Stars to town. Toronto may be coming off consecutive losses, but they continue to play an elite brand of hockey. As such, we expect them to be more than the Stars can handle on Tuesday night.
Correction was inevitable after the Leafs went on an extended winning streak. However, they’re starting to get their metrics back in order, supporting the idea that they should operate at peak form when the Stars come to town. Toronto has held four of its last six opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances, correlating with a decrease in five-on-five goals against. Further, they’ve eclipsed 10 quality opportunities in three of those outings, staking their offense to an unneeded advantage in the attacking zone.
The Stars haven’t imploded by any means, but they have posted deteriorating metrics in their own end. They’ve given up at least nine high-danger opportunities in five straight, contributing to a decreasing expected goals–for rating. Across that sample, Dallas has posted a 50.9% eGF rating, putting them below their season-long average.
The Stars can’t afford to make the same defensive miscues against the Leafs. Toronto is one of the league's most efficient offenses, and they should have no problem taking advantage of Dallas’ loose coverage. That should be the difference as the Maple Leafs end their mini-losing streak.
Vancouver Canucks vs. Winnipeg Jets
Jets Moneyline (-154)
Moneyline
The Vancouver Canucks are coming off an unsubstantiated win last time out. Moreover, that performance indicates a downward trajectory that has plagued the Pacific Division contenders over their recent schedule. We see them in another troublesome on Tuesday night as they take on the Winnipeg Jets.
Vancouver’s diminishing analytics profile is almost exclusively due to its lackluster offensive production. The 'Nucks have been limited to six or fewer high-danger chances in all but one of their last four, averaging a minuscule 6.8 opportunities per game. That puts them at a pronounced disadvantage against a Jets team that operates freely in the attacking zone and has one of the best netminders in the game.
Winnipeg’s offense continues to plunder in the attacking zone. The Jets have eclipsed 10 quality chances in four of five, correlating with a modest increase in scoring. They’re up to 14 goals over the five-game sample with 10 coming at five-on-five. As usual, they can rely on their goaltenders to limit the damage in the defending, allowing just five goals at five-on-five over the same stretch.
The Jets’ advantage is more substantial than the betting line implies. As a result, we forecast the home moneyline as the advantageous position in this one.
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