3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 11/14/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Philadelphia Flyers vs. Ottawa Senators
Senators Moneyline (-178)
Moneyline
It’s time to take stock of the Ottawa Senators. The Sens spent years lingering as a basement-dweller in the NHL standings, but after years of underachieving, they’re ready to take a big step up the standings. Their ascent continues with Thursday’s Eastern Conference showdown against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Ottawa’s results are starting to reflect its dominant on-ice product. So far this season, the Senators have accumulated the sixth-best expected goals-for rating in the NHL, putting together a 53.3% mark. However, we’ve seen the best they have to offer across their more recent sample. Ottawa has outplayed its opponents in seven straight games, crossing the 60.0% threshold four times and totaling a 62.0% average.
Those are metrics Philadelphia can’t compete with. Despite the Flyers’ best efforts, they remain one of the worst teams in the league. They have the seventh-worst eGF rating, ranking in the bottom tier of NHL teams in high-danger chances allowed and created. Philadelphia’s 6-8-2 record doesn’t reflect how bad this team is.
The Ottawa Senators train has left the station, and the Philadelphia Flyers can’t do anything to slow it down. This is an advantageous spot to back the Sens, who deserve a much steeper moneyline price.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Jets Moneyline (-102)
Moneyline
For some reason, bettors continue to stand against the seemingly unstoppable Winnipeg Jets. Off to the best start in league history, the Jets will be looking to extend their torrid pace against the analytically inept Tampa Bay Lightning.
Everything is going the Jets’ way early in 2024-25. Through 16 games, they have only one loss, and they appear to be getting better as the season progresses. Winnipeg was outplayed in seven of its first nine games, turning the tables over their past seven. Across the more recent stretch, they’ve put together a 54.5% expected goals-for rating while outplaying all but three of those opponents.
Unfortunately for Lightning fans, Tampa Bay is trending in the opposite direction. The Bolts can’t find their footing at either end of the ice, getting outplayed in four of five. Ineffective offensive play has hampered their success, but they’ve also lost momentum in their own end. Tampa Bay is averaging 8.2 high-danger and 20.4 scoring chances per game, which hasn’t been enough to offset the 19 goals it has given up.
These teams met last week, with the Jets triumphing. While home ice insulates the Lightning, it won’t be enough to tilt the ice substantially in their direction. It may take overtime or a shootout, but there’s an edge in backing the Jets to prevail.
New York Islanders vs. Vancouver Canucks
Under 5.5 (+114)
Total Goals
Trying to build off last year’s achievements, the Vancouver Canucks have adopted a more defensively responsible persona this year. That defensive structure leads them into an inter-conference battle against the New York Islanders on Thursday night.
Skilled offensive players be damned; the Canucks are playing stout defensive hockey. Through their first 14 games of the season, the Nucks have allowed the fewest scoring and high-danger chances in the NHL. That impenetrable structure has been on full display over their recent schedule, with the reigning Pacific Division winners limiting three of their past four opponents to four or fewer high-danger chances. Not surprisingly, only one of those opponents has recorded more than two goals.
The Islanders don’t play with the same defensive gusto, but their goaltenders have been up to the challenge lately. Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin haven’t allowed more than two goals at five-on-five in eight straight games. Predictably, that correlates with an elite .951 save percentage at five-on-five and a .901 mark across all strengths.
Several metrics suggest this game will be low-scoring. With plus-money on the under, we see an advantage in betting it to fall below 5.5 goals.
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