3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 12/28/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings

Kings Moneyline (+110)

Two Western Conference juggernauts and Pacific Division contenders square off in a heavyweight tilt on Saturday afternoon. The Los Angeles Kings host the Edmonton Oilers at Crypto.com Arena with the winner moving two points closer to the division-leading Vegas Golden Knights. The betting market has the Oilers installed as road chalk, but our analysis supports there’s value on the Kings.

Analytically, the Kings are a superior squad. They lead the NHL with a 56.1% expected goals-for rating, maintaining their form over their recent sample. The Kings have outplayed four of their past five opponents, yielding an identical expected goals-for rating compared to their season-long standing. That benchmark looks even more impressive when we consider that all five games came as the visitors.

The Oilers are trending in the opposite direction. After a torrid streak in which they outplayed their opponents in six straight and produced a 59.6% expected goals-for rating, the Oilers have inevitably regressed. Edmonton has been outplayed in three of its last five, watching its expected goals-for rating erode to 49.9%. Despite skating uphill most of the way, the Oilers only have one loss over that stretch.

Edmonton’s outcomes should start to reflect their ineffective on-ice product. On that basis, there’s an edge in backing the Kings as home underdogs.

Ottawa Senators vs. Winnipeg Jets

Senators Moneyline (+132)

The displaced Ottawa Senators are in the midst of playing nine straight away from home. They continue that extended road trip with a stop in Friendly Manitoba for a date with the Winnipeg Jets. The Central Division leaders have been one of the best in the NHL this season, but they will have a hard time besting the Sens on Saturday.

Ottawa’s offense has been operating efficiently. The Senators have eclipsed 10 high-danger chances in three of their past five, and that’s precipitated a slight increase in their five-on-five shooting percentage. Across the five-game sample, the Sens are scoring on 10.5% of shots -- a 2.5% jump relative to their season-long benchmark of 8.0%.

The Sens are poised to expose the Jets’ biggest weakness: ineffective defensive zone coverage. Winnipeg gives up the ninth-most high-danger chances per game, and the Jets have been lacking over their recent sample. Over their past seven, opponents are averaging 10.0 per game with three teams eclipsing 12 such opportunities.

As usual, quality chances are ripe for the picking in the Jets’ defensive end. We’re anticipating another strong showing from the Sens, giving them an advantage in tonight’s inter-conference battle. At the current offering, we see an implied advantage in backing the guests.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Islanders

Islanders Moneyline (-142)

Thankfully for them, the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins can’t both lose on Saturday night. Both Metropolitan Division teams have struggled this season. As implied by the betting price, the Islanders have the advantage on Saturday night, and our analysis supports the same.

The Penguins have looked utterly abysmal lately. Pittsburgh has been outplayed in four straight, producing an ungodly 39.0% expected goals-for rating. Shockingly, the Pens have still managed to claim victory in three of those contests. In doing so, they’ve set themselves up for regression in the immediate future.

After weeks of getting outplayed, the Islanders are finally starting to get their metrics working in their favor. New York has put together a 56.5% expected goals-for rating while outplaying its opponents in three of four. Their analytics success is being driven by elite offensive production, with the Islanders averaging 13.0 high-danger chances per game over that stretch. With only one win to show for their efforts, it’s time the Islanders see a few more dominoes fall.

This is an ideal spot to back a superior home team at a short price. These teams are heading in opposite directions, and the Penguins’ house of cards should come crashing down on Long Island.

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