3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 12/20/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Montreal Canadiens vs. Detroit Red Wings

Canadiens Moneyline (+128)

The Montreal Canadiens travel to the Motor City on Friday night for a scintillating Original Six matchup versus the Detroit Red Wings. Detroit has been on an impressive run, going 3-0-1 over its past four; however, the Wings have overachieved relative to their underlying metrics. Consequently, we see an edge in backing the visitors in this one.

The offense is driving the Red Wings' recent success, but their scoring is unsustainable. They’ve tallied 17 goals over the last four outings while falling below nine high-danger chances in all but one. Moreover, the Wings give up an alarming number of chances, with three of their four opponents eclipsing ten. Naturally, that ineffective play correlates with a diminished expected goals-for rating. Detroit has been outplayed in three of four, yielding a 47.8% rating.

Montreal’s scoring efficiency is through the roof this season. So far in 2024-25, the Habs have the sixth-best shooting percentage at five-on-five and across all strengths. Consider it the Martin St. Louis factor, as the Canadiens head coach enlightens his skilled players on the tricks to maximize output at the NHL level. Their elite scoring touch is a substantive advantage over the Red Wings’ netminders, who have an .896 save percentage and an .842 mark over their last four.

Detroit isn’t as good as its recent record implied. As one of the top-scoring teams in the league, the Habs can take advantage. There’s an implied advantage in backing the Canadiens in this one.

New York Rangers vs. Dallas Stars

Stars Moneyline (-184)

The New York Rangers conclude their three-game Central Division road trip with a stop in the Lone Star State. The Rangers are trying to pump the breaks on a three-game losing streak, but unfortunately, the mighty Dallas Stars are standing in their way.

The Western Conference runner-ups have rekindled their elite analytics play. Dallas has held four of its last five opponents to eight or fewer high-danger chances, giving up an average of 8.2 over that stretch. Further, that resilient defensive zone coverage is complemented by improved offensive production. The Stars have eclipsed ten quality opportunities in three of those five contests. As a result, they’ve put together an impressive 55.9% expected goals-for rating across that five-game sample.

Despite the analytics success, the Stars’ on-ice product doesn’t reflect their superiority. Dallas has three wins over that stretch, with a 47.3% actual goals-for rating and a 0.977 PDO. In reconciling their quality metrics with ineffective results, we forecast the Stars as progression candidates over their coming games.

The Stars’ upward trajectory starts with Friday’s tilt versus the Rangers. New York has been outplayed in three straight and four of five, with their expected goals-for rating falling below 37.0% in all but two of those contests. That leaves a sizable advantage in backing the Stars to triumph on home ice.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Anaheim Ducks

Ducks Moneyline (+202)

For the second night in a row, the Colorado Avalanche take to the ice, looking to make a run up the standings. However, the Avs are pointed in the opposite direction in tonight’s battle versus the Anaheim Ducks.

Analytically, Colorado has been dismantled this season, and its recent record reflects that. The Avs have been outplayed in five of six, resulting in a 46.7% expected goals-for rating. While they’ve been able to offset some of those analytics shortcomings with their elite play from their skilled players, that becomes increasingly difficult on the second night of a back-to-back. Moreover, those issues are compounded by starting their primary netminder on Thursday night, leaving Scott Wedgewood to clean up the mess versus the Ducks.

Anaheim is coming off, arguably, its best performance of the season. The Ducks thoroughly outplayed the Winnipeg Jets last time out, producing a 64.9% expected goals-for rating. Further, that was the second straight game in which they exceeded 12 high-danger and 28 scoring chances.

We’ve seen the best the Ducks have to offer, and that’s more than the Avalanche can handle. We see an advantage in backing the Ducks to prevail in this Western Conference showdown.

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