3 NFL Wild Card Prop Bets for Packers at Cowboys

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jake Ferguson

To Score a Touchdown (+180)

The NFL Playoffs are here and we have a full slate of games over three days. Let's jump into Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys.

The home Cowboys are 7.0-point favorites in a game that features a strong 50.5 over/under, which we can use as a guide to correlate with player props.

A 28.75 implied team for the Cowboys is nothing new, as they averaged 29.9 points per game overall and a whopping 37.4 points per game at home this season. We want to capture that touchdown production and it leads me to tight end, Jake Ferguson.

Ferguson has a good combination of an offensive role and touchdown odds (+180) that are worth targeting.

When it comes to the Packers' defense, they finished the regular season in the bottom half of the league for both yards (859) and touchdowns (7) allowed to opposing tight ends.

This season, Ferguson had a 16.9% target share and a 23.1% red zone target share, both of which were the second-highest on the team behind CeeDee Lamb. In the final five games of the regular season, we saw Ferguson's target share increase to 20.0%, but his red zone target share fell to 12.5%.

While it's a smaller five-game sample size, it's important to note his overall role is increasing, but red zone target share is decreasing. However, based on the odds and the matchup, he's still very much worth targeting this week.

Aaron Jones

Under 71.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

With an unfavorable game script, the Packers will not be able to rely on the ground game.

As 7.0-point road underdogs, the Packers are likely going to be pushed into a passing game script if they are playing from behind. This will put them in a spot where the rushing game takes a backseat and leads to under 71.5 rushing yards for Aaron Jones.

The Cowboys' defense allowed 112.4 rushing yards per game, which was 17th in the league. While it's a middle-of-the-road matchup, they may not get to attack that if they are playing from behind.

While Jones has gone over 100 yards in each of his last three games, we need some context for those performances.

Jones put up 127 yards versus the Carolina Panthers, who were in the bottom 10 of the league in rushing yards allowed. He put 120 yards versus the Minnesota Vikings, where the Packers led the entire game and were able to control the clock. He put up 111 yards against the Chicago Bears, where the Packers also led for the entire second half.

Those are strong performances but it's important to note why Jones was able to rack up over 100 yards.

Given the projected game script, the Packers won't have the opportunity to feed the ball to Jones and pile up the yards.

Jayden Reed

Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

With the game script noted above, the Packers should be in a spot to pass the ball.

Playing from behind should correlate with offenses passing the ball more, which gives us an area to focus on when it comes to player props.

As of now, the Packers' injury report is a bit of a mess for their wide receivers -- as it has been all season. Christian Watson has been limited in practice this week but is on track to make his return to the lineup. Romeo Doubs was also limited on Thursday and is on track to play, but less certain than Watson, as Doubs went to the hospital for a chest injury last week.

With all of that said, Jayden Reed is here as a full participant in practice and fully ready to go. This season, Red had a 17.6% target share, 20.3% air yards share, and 17.9% red zone target share.

Over the last five weeks, Redd has a team-high 21.4% target share, along with a 24.9% air yards share, 8.8 average depth of target (aDOT), and a 14.8% red zone target share.

He continues to play a strong role in their offenses, regardless of who is in or out of the lineup for the Packers. Reed is a consistent option, which has allowed him to average 59.2 receiving yards over the last five games.

The Packers are set to be playing from behind, pushing them into a passing game script. With Reed being the healthiest of the Packers' receivers, his role will be secure to rack up the yards this week.

Looking to build some NFL DFS lineups? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.