3 NFL Underdog Betting Picks, Predictions for Week 9

This Week’s NFL Best Bets in Summary

• Colts Moneyline (+215)
• Commanders +4.5 (-105)
• Chargers +4.5 (-104)

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Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season features some intriguing underdogs with the potential to pull off upsets. While favorites tend to attract plenty of attention, identifying live ‘dogs can be one of the best ways to find value in the betting market.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at the best NFL underdog bets for Sunday’s games.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and may change after this article is published. These bets may be pulled from our other NFL content. Check out all of our NFL picks.

NFL Underdog Bets, Picks for This Week (Week 9)

Colts Moneyline (+215)

Cowboys at Colts — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled to a 2-6 record, but there's reason to consider them as a home underdog against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has been one of the NFL's worst defensive teams, ranking last in opponent-adjusted defensive EPA per play (+0.12). The Cowboys are also allowing 26.6 points per game.

That presents an opportunity for the Colts to have success offensively, something that’s been a big struggle for them of late. Dallas has allowed +0.056 EPA per rushing play, and establishing a run game could help Indianapolis control the clock and keep Dak Prescott off the field. The Colts also rank fourth in rushing efficiency in Sharp Football Analysis' matchup rankings, giving them a potential advantage against a vulnerable Dallas run defense.

The Colts have plenty of issues of their own, particularly with Daniel Jones throwing nine interceptions against just five touchdowns. However, Dallas' defensive struggles make this a potentially favorable spot for the Indianapolis offense to bounce back.

With Indy at +215, I think the market is underrating them a bit despite their recent struggles.

Commanders +4.5 (-105)

Rams at Commanders — Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Washington Commanders enter Week 9 with some momentum after defeating the Eagles 27-10 last Sunday. Washington held Philadelphia to just 268 total yards while recording five sacks and forcing two turnovers. The Commanders rank among the league leaders with a +7 turnover differential, which could be particularly important against a Los Angeles Rams team that has committed 12 turnovers through eight games.

Washington's offense hasn't been particularly efficient, ranking 18th in EPA per play (0.00), but its ability to avoid turnovers has been impressive. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has thrown six touchdowns without an interception this season while adding 236 rushing yards in five appearances. His dual-threat ability gives Washington another way to move the chains against a Rams defense that ranks sixth in EPA allowed per play (-0.055).

Los Angeles is the better team, which is why they’re 4.5-point road favorites, but the Rams have been somewhat inconsistent offensively, averaging 24.2 points per game. They've posted a negative offensive EPA per play in three of their past six contests, including last week's 24-9 win over the Chargers.

Add in the element of the Rams traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. ET start, and I like the Commanders to cover.

Chargers +4.5 (-104)

Texans at Chargers — Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The Los Angeles Chargers have endured a disastrous 0-7 start, and while their offense has been horrific, their defense has remained competitive despite the team's offensive struggles.

Los Angeles ranks ninth in defensive EPA per play (-0.038) and eighth in defensive EPA per dropback (-0.009). That unit could make things tough for the Houston Texans‘ offense — even if C.J. Stroud is playing good ball this season.

Houston's offense has been significantly more effective through the air than on the ground. The Texans rank 28th in rushing success rate (34.0%), which could make it difficult for them to consistently control the game. Meanwhile, the Chargers' pass rush, led by Tuli Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack, has the potential to overpower a meh Houston offensive line.

The biggest concern is Los Angeles' offense, which ranks last in both EPA per play (-0.231) and success rate (36.0%). However, I think Justin Herbert is capable of making enough plays to keep the Chargers competitive, particularly if the Bolts’ defense continues playing at a top-10 level.

With Los Angeles getting more than a field goal at home, the Chargers have a path to covering the spread even without securing their first victory.

NFL Betting FAQ

What Does the Point Spread Mean in NFL Betting?

The point spread is designed to create a handicap between two teams. For example, if a team is listed at -3.5, it needs to win by at least four points for a spread bet on that team to cash. A team listed at +3.5 can either win outright or lose by three points or fewer and still cover the spread.

What Is an Over/Under in NFL Betting?

An over/under — also called a game total — is a wager on the combined number of points scored by both teams. If the total is set at 47.5, an over bet wins if the teams combine for 48 or more points, while an under bet wins if they combine for 47 or fewer.

What Is a Moneyline Bet in the NFL?

A moneyline wager is a bet on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the final margin. Favorites generally have shorter odds, while underdogs typically offer a larger potential return because they are considered less likely to win.

What Should You Consider Before Betting on an NFL Game?

Matchups, injuries, offensive and defensive efficiency, weather, home-field advantage, and recent performance can all be important factors. It's also worth monitoring line movement because NFL odds can change throughout the week as sportsbooks react to injuries, betting activity, and new information.

Where Can You Bet on NFL Games?

NFL bettors can find spreads, moneylines, totals, player props, and other markets at FanDuel Sportsbook via FanDuel’s NFL odds. Betting options and availability can vary by state, and odds may move leading up to the start of the game.

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Which bets stand out to you this week? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL odds to see the full menu of options. You can also check out our How to Bet on the NFL guide.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.