3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

T.J. Hockenson Any Time Touchdown (+170)

The Minnesota Vikings are putting up plenty of points and can continue that this week against the Carolina Panthers.

While the Vikings are 0-3, their offense continues to operate at a high level and brings plenty of value in the prop market.

This week, they come in as 4.0-point road favorites with a strong 25.25 implied team total. Over three touchdowns of scoring makes them a friendly option for touchdown props, and that leads us to T.J. Hockenson.

While Justin Jefferson is the top receiving option for Minnesota, Hockenson isn't too far behind, and his odds are rather high considering his role.

Hockenson comes in with a 21.1% target share and 15.4% air yards share while playing on 82.1% of the snaps and running a route on 82.8% of drop backs. That target share is the second-highest on the team behind Jefferson (27.8%), who is -120 to score this week. I'm shooting for the plus money for the Vikings' second-best pass-catcher.

When it comes to the red zone, Hockenson actually leads the team with a 29.2% red zone target share, compared to Jefferson at 16.7%. While that is certainly high for Hockenson, he had a 20.9% red zone target share last season once he joined the Vikings.

For the Panthers' defense, they've allowed the 14th-most yards (155) to opposing tight ends this season, and have yet to allow a touchdown to them. There are 17 teams in the league that haven't allowed a touchdown to a tight end through three weeks, though, so I'm not looking too far into it.

Hockenson plays a clear role for the Vikings and has great odds for a touchdown this week.

C.J. Stroud Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-114)

C.J. Stroud has looked good to start his rookie season, and his passing yards prop is simply too low this week.

The Houston Texans are 3.0-point home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers, where we see the total at 41.5 points. Through three games this season, the Texans have made one thing clear: Stroud is going to throw the ball a lot.

Houston comes in with a 63.77% passing play percentage, which is the seventh-highest in the league. They have no reservations about letting Stroud sling the ball, and that has led to 906 passing yards and 121 attempts through three games, both of which are in the NFL's top five. That's good for 302 passing yards and 40.3 attempts per game.

This is due in part to the Texans' inability to run the ball, averaging just 70 rushing yards per game, which is the fifth-lowest in the league. Success for the Texans does not come via the rushing game; it's in the air with Stroud.

When it comes to the Steelers' defense, they've allowed the 12th-most (779) passing yards to start the season, which is good for 259 yards per game.

It's not often we see a team fully trust a rookie quarterback to sling the ball early and often, but that's what we have with Stroud and the Texans. Between their play-calling tendencies, Stroud's production, and the matchup, the over is the play this week.

Mac Jones Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-114)

Mac Jones and the New England Patriots have tweaked the offense compared to last season, and it offers some props worth targeting.

Looking at the Patriots' offense from this season to last is rather drastic in a few areas and has ultimately led to a significant increase in plays per game.

In 2022, the Patriots averaged 59.2 plays per game, which was 28th in the league. They did that with an average of 29.6 seconds per play, which was 21st. Finally, they held a 57.75% passing play percentage, which was 17th.

They played very slow on a per-play basis, and that led to very few total plays run per game, along with not passing the ball at a high rate. This led to Mac Jones averaging 31.5 passing attempts in 14 games played.

Things couldn't be more different to start this season, and it leads us to over 32.5 passing attempts for Jones.

Through three weeks this season, the Patriots are averaging the second-most plays per game with a whopping 72.7. They are doing this with an average of 25.0 seconds per play, which is the fastest in the NFL. Add in a 60.09% (14th) passing play percentage, and Jones is piling up the attempts to the tune of 41.6 per game.

Jones had 54 and 42 attempts in the first two weeks, while he had only 29 attempts last week against the New York Jets. The Jets are averaging 53.3 plays per game, which is dead last in the league. The Patriots simply didn't have a ton of chances or a favorable game script to rack up the offensive plays last week, so the 29 attempts are a bit of an outlier.

This week, the Pats are taking on the Dallas Cowboys, who are averaging 71.0 plays per game, right behind the Pats at 72.7. We also see the Patriots as 6.5-point road underdogs, which should put them in a passing game script to catch up with the Cowboys.

This should help set up a back-and-forth nature for this game, allowing Jones plenty of chances to rack up the passing attempts.

Looking to build some NFL DFS lineups? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.