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3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 16

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

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Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and we kick things off on Thursday Night! I'll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.

Chris Olave

Any Time Touchdown (+210)

Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

An important late-season matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints gets Week 16 started.

A solid 46.5-point over/under and a 4.5-point spread in favor of the home Rams gives us the setting for two teams firmly in the playoff hunt. The big news for the Saints is that their top wide receiver, Chris Olave is going to play this week after missing last Sunday's game.

Given the fact this is an important game, I'm hopeful we see teams operate in a rational manner, and simply stick with what works, which means getting the ball to their best players.

That's what leads me to Olave for a touchdown and over 59.5 receiving yards this week, so let's jump in.

Olave leads the Saints with a 25.7% target share, 41.5% air yards share, and 20.0% red zone target share, while having the second-highest (14.0) average depth of target (aDOT).

The last five games have seen some minor changes with a 24.2% target share, 46.5% air yards share, and a 25.0% red zone target share. That red zone target share is now second on the team to Jimmy Graham, who is all the way up at a 57.1% red zone target share.

Simply put, a 57.1% red zone target share isn't sustainable for a player who is only playing on 11.3% of the snaps in the last five games. Graham has some recent production, there's no denying that, but Olave is still the best option for the Saints.

When it comes to the Rams' defense, they've allowed the 13th most (2,268) receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, making this a viable matchup for Olave. This should allow him to cross the 59.5 mark, something he has done in seven of his 13 games this season.

Matthew Stafford

Under 34.5 Passing Attempts (-108)

While Matthew Stafford has looked solid in recent games, under 34.5 passing attempts is the spot to target tonight.

Over the last four games, Stafford has 12 touchdowns and just a single interception, a level of production any team would be happy with. He has been great and this prop is nothing against him, it's more about the matchup and what it will take for the Rams to win this game.

This season, the Saints' defense is allowing 185.4 passing yards per game, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. The Saints' defense is also allowing 126.4 rushing yards per game, which is the ninth-most in the league.

A tough pass defense and a weak run defense should make the game plan for the Rams very simple -- get the ball to Kyren Williams. The running game is the path of least resistance for the Rams' offense and should be their priority for this game.

That is along the lines of what we've seen from them as they have a 57.30% pass play percentage, which is 18th in the league and that rate has dropped to 55.77% in their last three games.

Stafford has been very efficient with the ball in these last four games, but passing at a high rate isn't the Rams' trend right now, and doing so against a tough defense isn't the best option this week.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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