3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is here and we kick off Thursday Night! I'll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.

Skyy Moore Any Time Touchdown (+195)

The Kansas City Chiefs open as 5.5-point favorites at home to take on the Detroit Lions, where the total is set at 52.5.

The defending Super Bowl champs start the season with a 29.0 implied team total and are always capable of exceeding that in a hurry.

The big news for the Chiefs is that star tight end Travis Kelce hyper-extended his knee at practice on Tuesday, did not practice on Wednesday, and is listed as questionable for Thursday.

Kelce isn't the only one dealing with an injury, as wide receiver Kadarius Toney has been dealing with a knee injury throughout training camp. Toney was limited in practice on Monday and Tuesday, though he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday.

This impacts the Chiefs' passing game in a big way but also provides some opportunity in the betting market.

Even if Kelce and Toney were fully healthy, there's still an argument to be made for Skyy Moore as an emerging part of their offense. While the Chiefs drafted Rashee Rice, he doesn't appear to be a full-time player just yet.

The Chiefs' GM Brett Veach stated that Rice and Justyn Ross would be "package players" and that Moore is an "every-down guy" and is expecting a "big jump" from him. While we should take this with a grain of salt, it's encouraging to hear the GM talk highly of a player they drafted just last year.

Moore had a very modest rookie season with the Chiefs but given the uncertainty around their pass-catching group, Moore could be in for a big role to start the year.

A game with a 52.5 over/under is a good indication we should see plenty of scoring and getting exposure to that via the touchdown market is a good way to approach it.

Jared Goff Over 35.5 Passing Attempts (-122)

With the Lions expected to be playing from behind, Jared Goff should be in a spot to rack up plenty of passing attempts.

The passing attempt prop market is one of my favorites in the NFL and will be a spot I look at often this season.

This is because passing attempts can be projected accurately due to a team's play-calling tendencies, expected game script, and various other factors. If a game has a high over/under, there is an expectation of scoring, which puts teams in a spot to run plenty of plays.

Also, if a team is an underdog on the spread, they will have a negative game script, putting them in a position to pass the ball in order to catch up.

All of this is great to see, and it's what we have tonight with the Lions (+4.5) at the Chiefs.

The Lions finished last season with a 56.04% pass play percentage, which was 19th in the league. The Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, a good indication they are committed to improving their offense this season.

Recently, the Lions' offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said that vertical threats don't necessarily have to be receivers. This is very encouraging that they want to push their offense downfield and a great sign for Goff's passing attempts.

Considering Goff averaged 34.5 passing attempts per game last season, this feels like a buy-low spot on his prop, which could be on the rise this season.

Marvin Jones Jr. Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Finally, let's look at over 25.5 receiving yards for Marvin Jones.

Jones reunited with the Lions in the offseason and brings a level of consistency to their passing game. Jones spent the last two seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars, where he averaged 33 and 48 receiving yards per game.

While those aren't massive numbers, it's a solid level for a secondary option in their passing offense. It's clear that Amon-Ra St. Brown will be the top option for the Lions, but with a lack of consistency from Josh Reynolds, there's an opening for the number-two role.

numberFire has Jones projected for 33.22 receiving yards tonight, giving us a nice cushion between the prop and the projection.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.