3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Week 4, Seahawks at Giants
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Darren Waller Any Time Touchdown (+260)
The New York Giants host the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football to close out Week 4.
A tight 1.5-point spread in favor of the road Seahawks and a healthy 47.5-point total should set this game up for a decent amount of scoring.
The big news for the Giants is that star running back Saquon Barkley is listed as doubtful for tonight's game and is set to miss for a second straight week. This means the Giants should look to lean on their best offensive player, which is Darren Waller.
Waller comes in with a 20.8% target share, 25.5% air yards share, and 22.2% red zone target share. The latter two are the second-highest on the team, while the former leads the Giants this season. Despite all these strong underlying metrics for Waller, he has yet to find his way into the end zone this season.
It's only been three weeks, but the Giants have a 62.92% pass play percentage, which is the sixth-highest in the league. All three of their games have forced them into heavy passing game scripts, so while I expect this rate to regress, it's good to see they can lean into the passing game when needed.
The Giants come in with a 23.00 implied team total tonight, putting them in line for three touchdowns. With Barkley out of the mix for the offense, the Giants should be looking to their top pass-catcher tonight and get him into the end zone.
D.K. Metcalf Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-114)
D.K. Metcalf always has big-play potential, and we want to capture that via his longest reception prop tonight.
Over 22.5 yards for longest reception is where I'm looking tonight, and it's for several reasons, so let's jump in.
Metcalf is rocking a 19.8% target share, 37.8% air yards share, and 14.1 average depth of target (aDOT), which is nothing new for the big-play receiver. The air yards share and aDOT lead the Seahawks this season, and he continues to be their deep-ball option.
Through the first three games, Metcalf has hauled in long receptions of 22, 28, and 34 yards. This is similar to what we saw from Metcalf last season, where he finished with long receptions over 22.5 yards seven times.
When it comes to the Giants' defense, they have been torched by longer passes this year, allowing long receptions of 21, 22, 23, 24, 29, 40, and 49 yards. Opposing pass-catchers are routinely finding space in the Giants' secondary and are breaking off big plays.
All of this should put Metcalf to do his normal thing and bring in a reception for a big gain tonight.
Daniel Jones Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Daniel Jones has been known to pile up the yards on the ground, so let's look at the over on his rushing prop tonight.
The Giants' offense hasn't been anything close to consistent this season, but this is a chance for them to turn the corner against a Seattle defense that allows 29 points per game.
If they are going to be scoring, that means the yards will be there, and some of that should be coming via the rushing game and Jones' legs.
Jones has been over this prop total in two of the three games this season, and looking back to last year, he had 35 rushing yards or more eight times. Whether they are designed quarterback runs or scrambles out of the pocket, Jones has the ability to pick up yards on the ground at a consistent rate.
Those scrambles should happen often because Jones has been under constant pressure this season, with the Giants holding a 10.71% team quarterback sacked percentage, which is the fifth-highest in the league.
That means the Giants' offensive line is constantly breaking down, and hopefully, putting Jones in a position to scramble and pick up some rushing yards.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.