3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 2/13/24

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Jaylen Brown Over 21.5 Points (-108)

The Boston Celtics will take on the Brooklyn Nets this evening, and all signs point to a solid Jaylen Brown performance.

On the season, Brown is averaging 22.0 points per game. A matchup against the Nets should constitute an average scoring night.

The Nets are surrendering the fourth-most points per game to small forwards. We could see Brown get going from downtown; he scores 26.7% of his points from behind the arc, and Brooklyn is giving up the 10th-most three-point makes (3PM) in the league.

Brown is a solid mid-range shooter, ranking second (slightly behind Jayson Tatum) on Boston in shots made from this range. Since the start of 2024, the Nets have let up the second-most mid-range makes in the Association.

While this matchup looks good, I am most interested in how Brown has performed against below-average defenses. The Nets come into the night sitting at the 19th spot in defensive rating. Brown has eclipsed 21.5 points in 17 of his 25 games (68.0%) against teams that rank in the bottom 15 of defensive rating. If we take out a pair of games where he played less than 25 minutes (he averages 33.3 minutes per game), then he is clearing 21.5 points at a 73.9% clip in this split.

It's crystal clear that Brown shines against weak defenses, so I am happy to side with him tonight. Plus, dating back to 2022, he has scored over 21.5 points in six straight games against the Nets. This includes two contests earlier this season wherein Brown accumulated 23 and 28 points versus Brooklyn.

Devin Booker Over 5.5 Assists (-144)

The odds on this prop might not seem attractive, but the market is handing us a solid deal.

Devin Booker is averaging 7.1 assists per game for the Phoenix Suns. The -144 odds suggest a 59.0% probability, but Booker has recorded over 5.5 assists in 69.8% of his games this season.

He and the Suns will take on the Sacramento Kings, which could prove to be a dime-friendly matchup.

The Kings are allowing opposing point guards to dish out the eighth-most assists per game.

Booker is averaging 12.3 potential assists each night and it seems he is primed to convert some of those dimes to the stat sheet tonight. Phoenix is making the eighth-most field goals in the paint and draining the second-most mid-range jumpers in the NBA. Sacramento lets opposing teams shoot the ball at the seventh-best clip in the paint and the ninth-best clip from mid-range.

The Suns are set up for a high-scoring game (slate-high 125.5 implied team total), meaning Booker's assist potential could be off the charts in this one.

These teams have already gone up against each other on three occasions this season. The Kings surrendered an average of 8.3 dimes to Booker in this span (7, 7, and 11 assists).

De'Aaron Fox Over 2.5 Made Threes (+100)

Let's target another prop for this NBA on TNT showdown between the Kings and the Suns.

De'Aaron Fox has recorded over 2.5 made threes in 59.5% of his games this season, but the even money odds here suggest just a 50.0% probability.

Based on this, the value of this prop is intriguing, but Fox's matchup is even better.

On the season, the Suns have surrendered the second-most 3PM to point guards. And, in their last 30 games, they've let up more 3PM to point guards than any other team in the league.

Fox shoots and makes the most threes from above the break. The Suns, meanwhile, are letting opponents shoot the ball at the NBA's fifth-highest clip from above the break.

The potential game environment should interest us, too. A 5.0-point spread and an imposing 245.0 over/under could give way to a barnburner. Fox leads the way for this Sacramento group, and we shouldn't be surprised if his version of a fourth-quarter takeover comes in the form of 3PM.

As mentioned, these teams have squared off three times this season. Fox averaged 4.0 3PM per game in this sample (6, 2, and 4 3PM). I'm happily surprised to get the over here at even money, and I'd even give the alt markets a look. You can also get De'Aaron Fox 4+ Made Threes (+270) and 5+ Made Threes (+700).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.