3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 1/30/24
Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.
That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.
Using data -- including numberFire's daily basketball projections -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Picks
Anthony Davis Over 11.5 Rebounds (-120)
The Los Angeles Lakers will visit the Atlanta Hawks for a matchup that should allow Anthony Davis to be a monster on the boards.
On the season, Davis is averaging 12.1 rebounds per game. He has exceeded 11.5 rebounds in seven of his last nine games and is hitting the over for this line at a 58.7% clip this season, which is higher than the 54.55% implied probability at -120.
The Hawks are surrendering the sixth-most rebounds to centers and the eighth-most rebounds overall. Atlanta is also letting up the fifth-most offensive rebounds to centers per 36 minutes.
Davis averages 3.1 offensive boards per game (ninth-most in the NBA) and should be able to take advantage of the team that allows the fifth-most putback opportunities in the league.
Atlanta plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the league while the Lakers play at the sixth-fastest pace. But neither of these teams rank in the top 10 of effective field goal percentage, so we should expect to see plenty of missed shots turn into rebounding opportunities.
Davis is averaging 19.6 rebound chances per contest (third-most in the NBA), and though Clint Capela will be fighting him down low, AD has the wingspan size advantage.
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Made Threes (-104)
The Golden State Warriors will go up against the Philadelphia 76ers for the second game of an NBA on TNT doubleheader.
A nationally televised home game with a close spread (3.5-point) is Stephen Curry's bread and butter, so it feels only right to target his made threes prop.
Curry is averaging 4.7 three-point makes (3PM) this season and has exceeded 4.5 3PM in four of his last five games.
He has drained over 4.5 threes in 55.0% of his games this season, so the hit rate on the over is higher than the 50.98% implied probability at -106. This prop suggests value on a normal night, but a close spread and a 235.5 over/under could have Curry firing on all cylinders tonight.
Since the end of December, Golden State has played in six contests wherein the game was decided by 10 or fewer points and finished with a game total of at least 225.0 points, and Curry drained over 4.5 threes in all but one of these contests. He is their most consistent player by a mile, and when games are close, Curry takes over by letting it fire from downtown.
At first glance, the Sixers aren't a great matchup for Curry. Philadelphia is forcing teams to shoot the fifth-fewest three-point attempts (3PA) this season. However, this game will be the second night of a back-to-back for the Sixers. When playing under this circumstance, they are surrendering 37.7 3PA per game, which would be good for the fourth-most 3PA allowed in the league.
I think Curry is in a great spot tonight, especially because he is coming off of two days of rest, so I'll be siding with the over.
Jalen Brunson Under 8.5 Assists (-138)
Jalen Brunson is averaging 6.5 assists per game this season.
He's eclipsed 8.5 assists in just five of his 45 games this year, which means the under at this line is hitting at a towering 88.9% clip.
Since the -138 odds on this suggest just a 57.98% implied probability -- well below the actual hit rate for the under at this line (88.9%) -- I would have a hard time considering anything but under 8.5 assists.
Julius Randle (shoulder) is out for the New York Knicks, which has forced Brunson to step into an even larger role than normal. With Randle's absence comes higher usage and scoring production for Brunson. But Brunson doesn't see a significant boost in his assist numbers with Randle out.
When sharing the court with Randle, Brunson is averaging 6.5 assists per 36 minutes. When Randle is on the bench, Brunson is serving 6.8 dimes per 36 minutes.
Last night, the Knicks played their first game of the season without Randle. Brunson scored 32 points and dished out seven assists.
Tonight's game against the Utah Jazz will be the second night of a back-to-back for a possibly fatigued Brunson, but his scoring duties aren't going anywhere. Brunson will once again have to take on the lion's share of New York's offensive workload, and a special focus on scoring could limit his assist production. I'll trust what history has shown us and side with the under.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.