3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Thursday 1/25/24
Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.
That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.
Using data -- including numberFire's daily basketball projections -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Picks
Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points (-108)
We've got a star-studded NBA slate that features a pair of NBA on TNT games. The first national TV matchup will come between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat -- a rematch of last season's Eastern Conference Finals -- and I think Jayson Tatum is ready to get revenge on the Heat.
Tatum is averaging 27.0 points per game this season. He and the Celtics haven't played since Monday, and historically, a rested Tatum takes on a bigger share of Boston's scoring duties. In 11 games this season wherein Tatum received at least two days of rest prior to a game, he is averaging 29.9 points (28.8 points in regulation).
Boston has blown out a fair share of teams this season, resulting in reduced minutes from the Celtic starters. But the Celtics come into this one favored by just 8.0 points and have struggled on the road, so the Heat should keep this game close. This means we can expect plenty of minutes for Tatum, and in 27 games where he has played at least 36 minutes, he is averaging 28.5 points per contest.
Tatum leads all Boston players in field goals made (FGM) from the restricted area. Miami allows opponents the fourth-highest field-goal percentage (FG%) from this area. Tatum is not shy when it comes to driving to the hoop, so I'm encouraged by the great looks he could see inside.
Plus, few players in the league get to the foul line more than Tatum. He took a whopping 19 free-throw attempts this past Monday, and if he knows he can get good looks in the paint, he will take advantage.
Add in that Tatum takes over for this Boston team down the stretch -- and Miami has a good enough team to force the Celtics to fight for a victory -- and I feel good about siding with the over.
Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Made Threes (+116)
The back end of the NBA on TNT doubleheader provides us with a matchup between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors.
The Kings took the Warriors to seven games in last year's Western Conference playoffs. And just this season, these teams have met up on three occasions. Two of these games were decided by one point while one game was decided by eight points. Tonight's 2.0-point spread and juicy 243.0 over/under have us geared up for more of the same excitement.
And with a great matchup afoot, who better to target than Stephen Curry?
The Warriors have been riddled with all sorts of inconsistencies this season, but their main constant has been Curry. He is averaging 4.5 three-point makes (3PM) per game and has exceeded 4.5 made threes in 20 of his 38 games. The implied probability (46.3%) at +116 is lower than the frequency in which Curry is clearing 4.5 3PM (52.6% of the time), so we already know the value is great.
But beyond the value, we have to love this matchup. On the season, the Kings have been allowing the 10th-most 3PM per game. But in their last 15 games, they've given up more 3PM than any other team in the league.
Curry is averaging 5.0 3PM in three games against the Kings this season, and since he last met up with Sacramento, they've become significantly more sacrificial from behind the arc.
The 2.0-point spread should interest us, too. If you've watched Golden State in crunch time -- this year or any year -- you know that Curry helps his team stay in or win games by draining fourth-quarter threes. The opportunity and the matchup should allow him to do just that.
And while I think this is a matchup where Curry could go off, you are probably better off targeting his threes prop as opposed to Curry Over 27.5 Points at -111. He has surpassed 4.5 3PM in more games (20) than he has scored over 27.5 points (17) this season, so I'm all over the plus odds here.
De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists (+102)
Let's stay with the same game and look for De'Aaron Fox to dish out six assists tonight.
Fox is averaging 5.6 assists per game and has eclipsed 5.5 assists in 19 of his 36 games, so we've got a slightly higher hit rate on the over (52.8%) than the implied probability (49.5%) at +102.
But more than anything, I'm interested in how the Fox-to-Domantas Sabonis connection can be exploited against Golden State. Teams are running pick-and-roll scenarios and feeding the roll man at the seventh-highest rate against the Warriors. Sabonis ranks fourth in the league in FGA from less than five feet from the basket and is shooting at a 67.8% clip from that area, so look for Fox to dish out dimes against a weak Warriors paint defense.
The Warriors allow the 12th-best FG% to opponents. Fox is averaging 11.1 potential assists per game, meaning a decent shooting night for Sacramento could buff up Fox's assist numbers.
The Kings have a 122.5 implied team total in this one. In games this season where Sacramento has scored 123 points or more, Fox is netting 6.7 assists per contest. Dating back to last season, he has surpassed 5.5 assists in four of his last five games against GSW, netting 7.0 assists per contest.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.