3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 1/9/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Goga Bitadze Over 16.5 Pts + Reb (+100)

The Orlando Magic will be short-staffed against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Starters Franz Wagner (20.9 points per game) and Gary Harris will be out as well as center Wendell Carter Jr.. This means we should see increased opportunities for Goga Bitadze.

Bitadze is averaging 15.9 combined points and rebounds (PR) in 25 games as a starter for Orlando. But, in his last six games without Carter, he is averaging 16.7 PR, and in Sunday's one-game sample without both Carter and Wagner, he netted 25.0 PR.

If we take a look at on/off court stats, we can see that Bitadze nets 22.3 PR per 36 minutes with Wagner on the court, which shoots up to 26.5 PR with Wagner off the court.

The T-Wolves are not an easy matchup, but there are some cracks in their solid defense that Bitadze can exploit. In the last month, Minnesota has been surrendering the 12th-most (tied) paint points per game and the second-most paint points to centers. Bitadze scores a towering 78.7% of his points in the paint.

With these two big lineups going against each other, we could see a logjam in the paint that not only prioritizes it as a scoring area but also creates better rebounding chances for Bitadze.

Bitadze has played 28 minutes in each of his last two games with Carter out for both contests and Wagner seeing just five minutes on the court during this span due to injury. We should probably expect similar floortime tonight given Orlando's current lack of depth, and Bitadze is averaging 18.48 PR per 28 minutes this season.

Scottie Barnes Over 28.5 Pts + Reb (-108)

The Toronto Raptors will visit the Los Angeles Lakers for what should be one of the more competitive matchups on today's slate, and I want in on Scottie Barnes.

Barnes is averaging 29.3 PR this season. A friendly matchup paired with a key Raptor injury could have him reaching this average tonight.

The Lakers give up the third-most three-point makes (3PM) to small forwards per game. Barnes isn't shy from downtown, shooting 5.7 three-point attempts (3PA) per game and netting 31.7% of his points from behind the arc. Los Angeles allows the 13th-most points per game to small forwards and the ninth-most rebounds overall.

Starting center Jakob Poeltl (ankle) will be out for Toronto. Poeltl has yet to miss a game this season, and his presence on the boards will be missed, but Barnes could shoulder some of this workload. This season, Barnes is averaging 27.9 PR per 36 minutes with Poeltl on the court whereas he averages 32.7 PR per 36 minutes with Poeltl off the court.

For reference, Barnes is averaging 35.0 minutes per game this season, so any per 36-minute metrics are pretty on the money. The clear spike in Barnes' PR numbers sans Poeltl should translate to the stat sheet tonight.

And, for what it's worth, Barnes matched up against LAL in four games last season and eviscerated them. He not only cleared the 28.5 PR bar in all four games, but he averaged a whopping 37.3 PR in that sample.

Jalen Brunson Over 5.5 1st Qtr Points (+112)

Jalen Brunson is averaging 6.9 first-quarter points per game and will now get a crack at a Portland Trail Blazers team that surrenders the fourth-most points in said quarter.

Based on this alone, I'm interested in the plus odds we are granted, but if we dig in further, it seems a first-quarter prop is the way to go with this game.

The Blazers give up the 10th-most points to point guards and have the 12th-worst defensive rating in the league. The Knicks are favored by 12.0 points in this matchup, so we could see a blowout-based minutes restriction for someone like Brunson. However, we can't expect this game to get out of hand as soon as the first quarter, and Brunson is averaging 10.2 minutes in the first quarter of games this season.

Targeting Brunson's first-quarter prop protects us from a minutes restriction, plus, the Blazers consistently come out weak on defense. Portland allows the most first-quarter paint points in the league, and Brunson nets 35.2% of his first-quarter points in the paint.

Add in that Brunson leads all Knicks in 3PA and 3PM, and six first-quarter points seems anything but far-fetched.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.