3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 5/2/24

Annie Nader•@ANader33

15d

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Tyrese Haliburton Over 28.5 Pts + Ast (-111)

The Indiana Pacers will look to put away the Milwaukee Bucks this evening, and we should be high on Tyrese Haliburton at home.

In the regular season, Haliburton averaged 31.0 combined points and assists (PA) per game. And in games where he played at least 30 minutes -- FanDuel Research's projections have him set to log 38.01 minutes tonight -- he averaged 32.7 PA and cleared 28.5 PA at a resounding 81.0% rate (47 out of 58 contests).

These -111 odds imply just a 52.6% probability, so I'm seeing plenty of value in the over at this line.

Haliburton has had an interesting series thus far. In Games 1 and 2, he took only a combined 17 field goal attempts. That low shot volume was bound to change for Indiana's star guard, and it has. He's averaging 17.3 field goal attempts per game since that time.

In two home playoff games, Hali recorded 34 PA and 28 PA. He went on to net just 22 PA in a 23-point Game 5 loss, though there is something to be said for the fact that he has found the most success in the only two games that were both at home and decided by 13 points or fewer.

With a 6.0-point spread that favors Indiana, we should get a very competitive and close game that sees Haliburton as Indiana's leading force.

Beyond this appearing like a game where Hali goes off, positive regression could be huge for this prop.

Haliburton has been shooting the three-ball at just a 31.8% clip in this series, but he shot threes at a 36.4% clip in the regular season.

More importantly, he's been averaging 9.2 assists in this series off a whopping 17.8 potential assists per game. Look for the tide to change for him when it comes to knowing down threes and dishing out dimes.

Our projections expect him to go for 33.5 PA in Game 6.

Khris Middleton Under 32.5 Pts + Reb (-122)

Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are working to make a return for the Milwaukee Bucks (via Woj).

Lillard is listed as questionable while Giannis is listed as doubtful. Since the Bucks face elimination, with the Pacers owning a 3-2 series lead, I would expect Dame to suit up for Game 6.

With this in mind, it looks like Khris Middleton's combined points and rebounds (PR) prop is set too high.

Middleton averaged 19.8 PR in the regular season and exceeded 32.5 PR in just 1 of his 55 games. This means a lot less when considering the current landscape in Milwaukee, but it does show the market is asking a ton from Middleton.

It'd be surprising to see Giannis appear in this game, and his absence undoubtedly creates more opportunity for Middleton, but perhaps not to the tune of exceeding 32.5 PR.

Middleton is averaging 30.0 PR per 36 minutes when Giannis is off the court, and our projections forecast just 34.07 minutes of floor time for him in this one.

He's gone scorched earth in the last three games of this series, but with Lillard trending toward a return and another early-game Bobby Portis ejection unlikely, I'd expect the veteran to cool off in Game 6.

Donte DiVincenzo Over 11.5 Points (+100)

The New York Knicks are hoping to put the kibosh on the Philadelphia 76ers this evening, and I want in on Donte DiVincenzo's points prop.

We're finding DiVincenzo in a buy-low spot. He averaged 15.5 points per game this season and managed 21.1 points per game in contests where he played at least 30 minutes.

He's a starter on a Knicks team that has had three or fewer players come off the bench in all but one game of this series, so the opportunity is there, he just hasn't put it together quite yet.

We all know Donte as a lethal three-point shooter. He made threes at a 40.1% rate and netted 67.4% of his points from behind the arc during the regular season.

But this battle against the Philadelphia 76ers has not been kind to him. He's struggling with a 30.0% 3P% in the playoffs and is just 3-for-14 from downtown across his last two games.

The one game in this series where he shot above 40.0% from behind the arc (4-for-8) led to a 19-point outing.

The Sixers rank 11th (out of 16 teams) in defensive rating during these playoffs and are allowing opponents to make threes at an above-average rate, so they are not to blame for DiVincenzo's struggles.

I love DiVincenzo in this bounce-back spot, and I'd also consider backing Over 2.5 Made Threes (+106) or 4+ Made Threes (+310). But considering he's found a bit of scoring success in other areas during this series -- netting only 55.1% of his points from threes -- I'm keen on taking the more holistic approach with his scoring.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.