3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 3/1/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Jalen Duren Over 10.5 Rebounds (-104)

Jalen Duren is one of the most high-volume rebounders in the NBA, averaging 12.0 boards each game (fifth-most in the NBA).

He has grabbed over 10.5 rebounds in 28 of his 42 games this season, which means he is clearing today's rebounding line at a solid 66.6% rate.

These -104 odds, on the other hand, imply just a 50.9% probability. Duren's role on the Detroit Pistons has not changed, so it seems this prop is scorching with value.

He and the Pistons will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

With a 38-20 record, the Cavs own one of the top winning percentages in the league. Cleveland features a duel rebounding threat down low in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but they should actually serve as a perfect matchup for Duren.

The Cavs lead the league in field goal attempts from the less than 5-foot range. Duren's average rebound distance is just 4.0 feet (lowest among Pistons who play at least 20.0 minutes per game).

Duren sees 19.3 rebound chances per game, but when going up against the league-leading team in interior shooting, these opportunities should increase. The battle for boards will be owned by the centers in this game, as evidenced by Cleveland's stats against centers.

On the season, the Cavs are surrendering the 10th-most rebounds per game to centers. They've let up the seventh-most boards to the position across the last 30 games and the second-most over the last 15.

The board opportunities for centers should be ample, and we just need Duren to show up.

FanDuel Research's projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- anticipate Duren to record 11.7 rebounds.

Jonas Valanciunas Under 20.5 Pts + Reb (-108)

Jonas Valanciunas is capable of being a stat machine, but not when he's grabbing the bench for the better half of games.

On the season, Valanciunas is averaging 23.0 combined points and rebounds (PR). But this past Wednesday, a steady decrease in minutes turned into JV receiving total bench treatment.

Despite starting Wednesday's game against the Indiana Pacers, JV played a mere seven minutes in this contest, recording just 3.0 PR. New Orleans Pelicans' coach Willie Green opted to start Larry Nance Jr. in the second half.

These teams will run it back tonight, and I don't think we can trust JV to make much of an impact.

For starters, let's look at why Valanciunas was benched in Wednesday's outing. He struggled with a negative 14 plus/minus ratio in just seven minutes, and Indiana's red-hot pace of play made a slow Valanciunas a detriment on both ends of the court.

The Pacers play at the second-fastest pace in the league, so the Pelicans won't be able to mess around tonight.

JV is averaging 0.91 PR per minute, which means he would theoretically need to play 23.1 minutes to surpass 20.5 PR.

But if we check out his game log against teams that play at a fast pace, it becomes clear that Wednesday's shortened outing is nothing new.

This season, Valanciunas has played in eight games against teams that boast a winning record while also ranking in the top 10 of pace. In this split, he exceeded 23.1 minutes on only two occasions, averaging 20.3 minutes per game.

A date with Indiana typically constitutes a stat-heavy game for the opposition. It seems that will not be the case for Valanciunas in this one.

Brandin Podziemski Over 1.5 Made Threes (+168)

Despite playing 32 minutes in last night's Golden State Warriors victory against the New York Knicks, Brandin Podziemski was awfully quiet on the offensive end.

I think this changes tonight, especially since the Warriors will need an extra boost in what will be the second leg of a back-to-back.

Like most rookies, Podz got off to a slow start this season. But, dating back to last December 19th, he has played at least 25.0 minutes in every contest. He even averaged 31.9 minutes in February, so we should feel good about his court time.

In games where Podz has played at least 25.0 minutes, he is hitting over 1.5 made threes on a 43.9% basis. Meanwhile, these lofty +168 odds odds imply just a 36.5% probability.

The Warriors will visit the Toronto Raptors, a team that has been surrendering the eighth-most three-point attempts (3PA) in the NBA since trading Pascal Siakam.

The Raptors have let up the ninth-most three-point makes (3PM) to shooting guards across their last 30 games. Further, they've given up the third-most corner 3PA in their last 10 games, and Podz shoots corner threes at a solid 40.5% clip.

Andrew Wiggins (personal) is out for this contest while Golden State's vets could be fatigued from last night's battle. I'd expect Podz to step up tonight in the form of a higher-than-normal shot volume, especially from downtown.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.