3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 11/17/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Ausar Thompson Over 22.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

The Detroit Pistons will be without starting center Jalen Duren, and backup big man Marvin Bagley III is questionable for tonight's matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. This has a big-time Ausar Thompson performance written all over it.

Thompson is averaging 22.3 points and rebounds (PR) this season, which is right around where the market placed his prop line tonight.

However, I don't think the market is accounting for the forward's rookie-induced slow start, as Thompson has cleared this prop in eight out of his last nine games -- the one time he failed to clear this prop, he did so narrowly, recording 21 PR.

If Bagley is ruled out tonight, it would certainly help Thompson's production ceiling, but I wouldn't place too much emphasis on Bagley's status for now. The absence of Jalen Duren, however, has been very kind towards Thompson's stat sheet.

In four Duren-less games, Thompson is averaging 25.0 PR.

The Cavs give up the 10th-most rebounds to forwards per 36 minutes and the fifth-most free throw attempts (FTA). This should give way to Thompson being a monster on the boards, plus his 72.2 free-throw percentage (FT%) should aid him in the points department.

James Harden Under 6.5 Assists (+114)

In his five-game tenure with the Los Angeles Clippers thus far, James Harden has yet to record seven or more assists -- I think that streak sticks tonight.

Harden is averaging 4.2 assists per game, whereas he averaged 10-plus in each of his last five seasons. Regression should come, but the Clippers are recording the sixth-fewest assists per game and can't seem to figure out their offense just yet.

There's been a key lineup change for LA, as Russell Westbrook will now come off the bench, and Terance Mann will fill the fifth starting spot. This will shake things up for Harden and the offense as a whole.

While Westbrook being out of the starting rotation could help Harden with his scoring game (to the point where I'd check out Harden Over 16.5 Points at -111), there is a correlation between Harden recording fewer assists and Westbrook not being on the court.

In 84.3 minutes with Westbrook on the court, Harden has 14 assists. In 75.3 minutes with Westbrook off the court, Harden has only seven assists.

Further, the Clips will go up against the Houston Rockets tonight, a team that gives up fewer assists than any other team in the league, including to guards per 36 minutes.

Given that we haven't seen what Harden's output will look like with the new lineup, we could see overall regression come quicker than expected. But this regression is much more likely to arrive in the points department first.

Harden has yet to hit this mark this season, he's facing an assist-resistant team, and there is a strong correlation in low assist numbers when Westbrook is on the bench. I feel good getting the under here at plus odds.

Skylar Mays Over 12.5 Points (-115)

Injuries in sports are never fun, but they do make room for under-the-radar players to put up bigger numbers than usual. Three of the main guards on the Portland Trail Blazers -- Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon, and Scoot Henderson -- are sidelined with injuries, so I'm targeting Skylar Mays to get some work done in their absence.

Mays is averaging 13.0 points in four games since the Blazers top guards have been out, and he has cleared this prop in three of those games, including one against tonight's opponent, the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers allow the 10th-most points to guards per 36 minutes. They also let up the eighth-most points in the paint, sixth-most three-point makes (3PM), and the most second-chance points to guards per 36 minutes.

Mays, meanwhile, scores 51.9% of his points in the paint and 19.5% from downtown.

The matchup is great, and Mays has averaged 33.0 minutes over his last four, so the trajectory to 13 points on a short-staffed team seems pretty clear. Plus, Mays has managed to average 13.0 in this span despite shooting poorly from behind the arc (20.0%), so any uptick in those numbers would be an added benefit to the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.