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3 NBA Player Prop Best Bets for Friday 11/8/24

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13

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3 NBA Player Prop Best Bets for Friday 11/8/24

The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.

From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We're here to help you sift through it all.

Using FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NBA Player Prop Picks Today

LaMelo Ball Over 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)

For the season, LaMelo Ball is averaging 28.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game for a combined PRA line of just 38.9 per contest.

Tonight, though, he and the Charlotte Hornets are up against the Indiana Pacers, who rank around the league average in pace but 23rd in defensive rating.

They're also managing to rank 23rd in defensive rating while allowing a 33.6% three-point percentage, well below the NBA average. That should regress toward the league average eventually, and the defense would suffer accordingly.

LaMelo Ball - Pts + Reb + Ast

LaMelo Ball Over
@
LaMelo Ball Under
Nov 9 12:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Despite the solid pace and weak defensive rating, the Pacers have let up an average of just 23.5 assists per game, around 90% of the NBA average on a per-game basis. But they've let up eight-plus assists to the likes of Cade Cunningham (8), Paolo Banchero (9), Zion Williamson (10), and Luka Doncic (15).

Ball has hit 41-plus PRA in four of his eight games this year, and he's due for regression in terms of rebound conversions and assist conversions this season -- based on long-term averages.

In a game with a slate-high 235.5-point total, Ball should have plenty of chances to rack up stats.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 33.5 Points + Assists (-106)

On the year, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 32.8 combined PA (26.0 points and 6.8 assists) per game, which is on the back of over-achieving assist conversion so far this season.

He and the Oklahoma City Thunder are in a game with a lower total (221.5) and are heavy home favorites (-8.5) over the Houston Rockets, who are 4th in defensive rating and 28th in pace on the season. Limited fourth-quarter minutes could be in store for SGA.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Pts + Ast

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over
@
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under
Nov 9 1:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Additionally, Houston ranks second-best in PA allowed to opponents this year while also letting up only 30.8 three-point attempts per game -- by far the fewest in the league.

Although Gilgeous-Alexander is due for big-time three-point regression, this likely isn't the spot where he gets up extra shots or creates them for teammates.

Caleb Martin Over 10.5 Points (-115)

We've got a star-studded game in Los Angeles tonight as the Philadelphia 76ers travel to play the Los Angeles Lakers, but it's not necessarily one of the top names I'm looking at for a scoring prop.

Rather, it's Caleb Martin.

Martin has started six straight games for the Sixers and should start again tonight. In his starts, he has averaged 10.5 points on 9.2 shot attempts in 33.4 minutes per game.

Caleb Martin - Points

Caleb Martin Over
@
Caleb Martin Under
Nov 9 3:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Where's the value, then? Well, Martin is scoring well enough even without shooting to his long-term baselines. He's scored double-digit points despite shooting just 30.9% from the field and 21.1% from three in this split.

My model has Martin expected for 14.5 points in this six-game span if he shot to his three-year averages across the entire floor.

numberFire's model is anticipating 11.8 points from Martin in this matchup against a Lakers team that is top 10 in pace and bottom 3 in defensive rating.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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