3 NBA Best Bets for Wednesday 11/6/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
Nuggets Moneyline (+230)
The Oklahoma City Thunder (7-0) are one of two remaining undefeated teams and looking to build upon last season's 57-25 record, one that earned them the top seed in the West. They're an incredibly talented group that deserves to be favored in just about every scenario.
With that said, do the Nuggets -- even without Jamal Murray (concussion) and Aaron Gordon (calf) -- deserve to have just a 30.3% win probability on their home court? I see some value in Denver's moneyline, so let's look for them to hand OKC their first loss of the season.
Moneyline
These two groups met up in the season opener. The Thunder prevailed with a 102-87 win, but it took the Nuggets shooting a terrible 35.7% from the field and 18.4% from behind the arc. It doesn't get much worse than 7-for-38 from long range, and we shouldn't assume the same shooting struggles tonight.
The Nuggets are in the midst of a five-game home stretch. They've won two straight in Denver, albeit against the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors, but an extended home stay typically provides teams with positive momentum. Plus, Denver has historically been excellent at home. Last season, they went 33-8 at Ball Arena. The season before, they managed a 34-7 record on their home court.
OKC is generating 18.5% of their points (fifth-most in the NBA) via forced turnovers, but Denver is surrendering the eighth-fewest points off turnovers per game. It's completely understandable to favor the Thunder in this spot. But Nikola Jokic can punish OKC's young guns, and an efficient night for Russell Westbrook -- who logged 21 points, 6 assists, and 6 rebounds via 60.0% shooting on Monday -- would help make up for Murray's absence. Denver's 30.3% win chance might be short selling their potential, so I'll back them outright at +230.
Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans Under 108.5 Points (-108)
The market has low expectations for the New Orleans Pelicans' offense tonight, and I want to double-down on its outlook for the Pels.
The injury bug has ravaged the Pelicans. Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, C.J. McCollum, and Trey Murphy III are all out for extended time. On top of that, Zion Williamson (thigh) is listed as questionable for tonight's contest. Past Brandon Ingram, the healthy roster has zero offensive pulse.
Home Team Total Points
New Orleans is averaging 107.8 points per game (fifth-lowest in the NBA) and is netting just 106.3 points in the four games since McCollum has been out. They've scored 111 points or fewer in every contest since their season opener, with the exception of a matchup against a fast-paced Indiana Pacers team. The Pels are running at the seventh-slowest pace in the league and shoot the fifth-fewest threes per game, so it's no wonder why their team totals have been so low.
The opposing Cleveland Cavaliers should make points even harder to come by.
The Cavs come into the night with the fifth-best defensive rating. They're also letting up the fifth-fewest three-point attempts. That's helped them give up an average of just 109.1 points (eighth-fewest) through eight games. No team has scored more than 116 points against them, and five of their opponents have been held to 110 points or fewer.
Backing New Orleans' under isn't a hard decision for me.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Over 215.0 (-110)
The San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets will meet up tonight. This matchup has all the fixings for a low game total. The Spurs (26th) and Rockets (29th) each rank low in pace of play. San Antonio (9th) and Houston (10th) also have great defensive ratings. In turn, it's no shock to see the over/under is the lowest on today's slate. However, 215 points is a really low bar, and I think these teams will exceed it tonight.
Total Points
The Rockets are shooting 39.4 3PA per game (eighth-most). The Spurs aren't all that three-point resistant, either, shooting 35.9 attempts each contest. The problem? These teams have been making triples at the third and fifth-worst clips in the league. Regression could be forthcoming, and luckily, these defensive units are two of just 10 teams that allow opponents to shoot threes at a 37.5% clip or higher.
The Spurs and Rockets have already met up twice this season. Those contests amounted to just 207 and 215 points. However, in one of those games, both squads shot 42.5% or worse from the field. For context, only four teams are shooting at this poor of a clip on the year, so it's rare that we see both sides of offense suffer to such an extent.
In the game that combined for 215 points, the Rockets shot threes at a harsh 31.7% clip while the Spurs shot 15.9 fewer threes than their team average. A tame pace of play certainly influenced San Antonio's low output from downtown, but it's clear that poor shooting and lower-than-should-be volume is what kept that game to just 215 points.
If either offense manages to get over the shooting hump, this game should have no problem exceeding 215 points. I'll look for that to happen tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.