3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 11/19/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
Nuggets Under 111.5 Points (-102)
When Nikola Jokic is not on the floor, the Denver Nuggets are scoring 90.3 points per 100 possessions, compared to 128.1 points per 100 possessions when the Joker is playing. Denver is simply a mess without Jokic this season, and we've seen that over the last two games without the former MVP in the lineup.
During the two-game span, Denver is logging only 92.0 points per game (PPG) while shooting 42.1% from the floor. After falling to the Memphis Grizzlies with only a 90-point outing on Sunday, the Nugs could do more of the same on Tuesday. Jokic is questionable (personal reasons) for tonight; that alone gives us more than enough reason to target the under for the Nuggets' point total.
Away Team Total Points
Memphis already carries the fifth-best defensive rating in the league. According to Dunks & Threes, Denver is leaning on points in the paint, with the second-highest shot distribution around the rim. However, the Grizz give up the 10th-fewest points in the paint per game while surrendering the 16th-lowest shot distribution around the rim.
Defending the three has been a clear weakness for Memphis as it gives up the second-highest three-point shot distribution and second-most three-point attempts per contest. However, the Nuggets are shooting the third-fewest three-point attempts per game and shot 29.4% from deep in the two games without Jokic.
This bet will likely hinge on if the Joker is available as Denver logged 126.2 PPG over a five-game stretch before Jokic's absence over the last two. The under is certainly the way to go if Jokic is out for a third straight game.
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Thunder Over 115.5 Points (-118)
For TNT's doubleheader, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a No-Sweat Token for a 3+ Leg Same Game Parlay/Same Game Parlay Plus Wager for either TNT game. We highlighted some of the best bets for the Cleveland Cavaliers-Boston Celtics.
Let's jump into the best bet for the Oklahoma City Thunder against the San Antonio Spurs, taking advantage of FanDuel's promo.
A lot of the juice for this matchup is gone due to the doubtful status of Victor Wembanyama (knee). With that said, the Spurs are notable 9.5-point 'dogs at home. While Wemby's absence is not felt too much on the offensive end, San Antonio's defense plummets when its star is out.
The Spurs' defense has been pretty darn good, carrying the 13th-best defensive rating while holding opponents to 110.0 PPG (5th-fewest) and a 53.2% effective field goal percentage (9th-fewest). When Wemby isn't on the floor, opponents' eFG% goes from 52.1% to 56.3%, their two-point percentage jumps from 50.4% to 58.5%, and their at-the-rim percentage spikes from 58.6% to 69.2%.
Away Team Total Points
With that said, the Thunder are pouring in the 10th-most points in the paint per contest. OKC has an overall solid offense -- sporting the 11th-best offensive rating, 115.4 PPG (11th-most), and a 46.2% field goal percentage (14th-highest).
The Thunder's point total isn't that lofty at 115.5. Plus, numberFire's NBA game projections have OKC scoring 120.8 points tonight. Considering Wemby's impact on the Spurs' defense, look for the OKC offense to dominate tonight.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Over 234.5 Points (-110)
We might as well round out our picks with a trifecta, taking yet another total. This time I'm going after the game total for the Utah Jazz-Los Angeles Lakers.
Total Points
The Jazz play at the 10th-quickest pace while the Lakers are at the 16th-quickest tempo. Los Angeles' fourth-best offensive rating along with 116.7 PPG (seventh-most) should be able to do the heavy lifting here -- especially with Utah's 118.5 defensive rating (second-worst).
L.A. carries the fifth-highest shot distribution at the rim along with the sixth-most points in the paint per game. The Jazz surrender the 14th-fewest points in the paint per game, but Walker Kessler(hip) will be out.
When Kessler is off of the floor, opponents' eFG% goes from 54.0% to 57.8% and their two-point percentage jumps from 54.4% to 58.3%. Kessler has missed the last four games, and in those games, Utah opponents averaged 117.5 PPG while two of the last three eclipsed 60 points in the paint.
On the other side of the court, Utah holds the 12th-highest three-point shot distribution. The Lake Show's perimeter defense has been meh, giving up the 14th-fewest made threes per game while opponents shoot 35.8% from deep (13th-highest).
The Lakers also carry the sixth-worst defensive rating, and LeBron James (117.4 defensive rating) and Anthony Davis (116.1 defensive rating) have been nothing special on defense. Pair that with the Jazz's top scorers being frontcourt players -- John Collins (17.5 PPG) and Lauri Markkanen (17.3 PPG) -- and we should have enough points for the over.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.