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3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 11/12/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 11/12/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

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Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injuries come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons

Pistons Moneyline (+102)

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These two teams' injury reports are moving in the opposite direction as NBA Cup Group Play gets underway.

Visiting Motown, the Miami Heat will be without Jimmy Butler (ankle) for a second consecutive game. They were able to squeak by the Minnesota Timberwolves without him on Sunday, but they also got waxed by the Denver Nuggets on Friday after he left the contest. Those efforts were good for a -5.9 net rating (NRTG) overall.

On the home side, the Detroit Pistons upgraded Jalen Duren (ankle) to questionable, indicating he might make his return from a two-game leave. Duren's on-off splits might be harmed by a team that's improved around him to win four of seven -- and lose two other one-possession tilts. Their NRTG is +0.6 in this stretch.

Detroit enters with more of their key pieces, and I have to think the public is playing the more consistent basketball apparatus (Miami) at this small number, yet it continues to shrink. The Motors could close as favorites when Duren is ruled as playing.

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers

Over 213.0 Points (-110)

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In terms of starters, the New York Knicks' injury report is clean, but the Philadelphia 76ers are swapping out stars.

Joel Embiid (knee) makes his season debut for Philly tonight, and the team had a stellar 122.0 offensive rating (ORTG) when he was on the floor last year in medium-to-high leverage situations, per PBP Stats. The team's is fourth-worst in the league (107.4) to begin this campaign. It shouldn't be a surprise he'll help them score.

The Sixers swap out Tyrese Maxey (hamstring) in this exchange, though. Their offensive rating is just 99.3 this season with Maxey off the floor in those situations, but replacement Reggie Jackson (123.3 DRTG) is the worst defender on this team, which aids the overall argument for a game total.

These two squads are bottom three in adjusted pace this season, but I expect the Sixers to play a less ugly brand of basketball with Embiid back. They were 18th in adjusted pace a year ago under Nick Nurse.

New York's defense might also be a bit overrated; their 115.7 DRTG is 10th-worst in the league. With that being the case, Tuesday's lowest overall game total just seems to be a bit too low for the big man's projected boost.

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks

Bucks Under 117.5 Points (-115)

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Even with the Toronto Raptors coming to town, the Milwaukee Bucks are simply out of dudes.

Damian Lillard (concussion) won't play Tuesday, leaving A.J. Green and Pat Connaughton to fill major minutes at the point. Khris Middleton (ankles) has also yet to play this season.

Lillard might be Milwaukee's most substantial offensive on-off condition because of their depth down low. In medium-to-high leverage situations, the Bucks' ORTG drops from 119.8 to 115.0 when he's sitting. That should ultimately decline given Giannis Antetokounmpo can't possibly cover all of those non-Lillard minutes tonight.

A worsening Raptors matchup might hurt this case, too. Toronto's DRTG is still bad in its last five games (119.3), but they've dropped to the league's 12th-slowest pace in this time to protect it. We could see the Bucks shift down a gear without Dame, as well.

This is unnerving when five of Toronto's last six opponents have exceeded 120 points scored, but Milwaukee's rotation now significantly lacks quality three-point shooting, and their best scorers will be forced to pass through Jakob Poeltl.


Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.


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