3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 1/7/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets

Hornets +4.5 (-114)

The Phoenix Suns entered the season with a win total of 48.5. At 16-18, they are currently on pace to reach only 39 wins -- well below that preseason total. Phoenix is also viewed as a tossup to earn a postseason berth with -110 odds to make the NBA playoffs. Despite a mostly healthy roster, the Suns have continued to struggle with 3-7 straight-up and against-the-spread (ATS) records over the last 10 games.

It is not that outlandish to back the 7-27 Charlotte Hornets at home.

While the Hornets have the second-worst defensive rating, they've at least been able to put up points by ranking 18th in offensive rating. Charlotte is a high volume three-point shooting team, attempting the third-most threes per game and making the eighth-most threes per contest paired with the fourth-highest three-point shot distribution, per Dunks & Threes.

Phoenix's defense doesn't cause many headaches as the Suns sport the eighth-worst defensive rating while allowing 113.9 points per game (11th-most). The Suns have been meh at defending the three as they surrender the 15th-most three-point attempts per game and the 10th-most three-point makes per contest. Opponents also shoot 36.6% from beyond the arc (eighth-highest) when facing Phoenix. The Hornets are attempting 38.2 three-point shots per game over their last five; don't expect this volume to fall off tonight.

Along with promise in the three-point category, Charlotte sits in the top 11 of offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. The Suns have the 5th-lowest offensive rebounding percentage and 13th-lowest defensive rebounding rate. Pair plenty of three-point shots with controlling the possession battle and you've got to feel pretty good about the home team covering -- especially with Phoenix logging a measly 103.3 PPG over its previous seven contests.

numberFire's NBA projections have the Suns winning by 1.6 points and give the Hornets a 59.3% likelihood to cover. For comparison, the current -114 odds for a cover holds only a 53.3% implied probability.

Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz

Hawks Over 122.5 Points (-112)

With the Atlanta Hawks averaging 117.1 PPG (seventh-most) this season, their offense should be licking its chops against the Utah Jazz, the team with the worst defensive rating.

Despite ranking 19th in offensive rating, the Hawks have been able to put up large scoring totals by playing at the second-quickest pace while shooting the fourth-most field goals per game. Don't expect this to change against Utah, which has the 13th-quickest adjusted pace and gives up the 7th-most field goal attempts per contest.

Atlanta has mostly leaned on attacking the rim this season, carrying the fourth-highest shot distribution around the rim. Meanwhile, the Jazz are allowing the ninth-most points in the paint per game, and their interior defense -- led by Lauri Markkanen (123.5 defensive rating) and Walker Kessler (121.9 defensive rating) -- doesn't bode much confidence, either. Markkanen (back) is questionable and missed the previous game; Micah Potter started in the Utah's last game, and he's producing much better defense with a 110.2 rating. If Markkanen plays, we have even more reason for backing the Hawks' scoring total.

Adding to the evidence, Atlanta also gives up the sixth-most field goal attempts per game and the fourth-most fast-break points per contest. The Jazz allow the most fast-break points per game across the Association. Everything about this game is suggesting a blistering pace, and considering Utah's struggles on defense, we have more than enough reason to take over 122.5 points for the Hawks, a team that has reached 120 points in four of the last six.

Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets

Under 237 Points (-108)

The second-highest total of the night is on tap for the Boston Celtics against the Denver Nuggets. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Finals odds, the Celtics carry the shortest line (+200) while the Nuggets have the fifth-shortest odds (+1600). These are two of the NBA's best teams, but the 237-point total seems too high.

Sure, Boston boasts the league's second-best offensive rating while Denver has the fourth-best mark. However, these defenses aren't bad as each unit is in the top half of effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed. The Celtics' impact on this game is what has me firmly on the under.

First off, Boston has the sixth-best defensive rating while playing at the eighth-slowest adjusted pace. Opponents have only a 52.4 eFG% against the Celtics (fourth-best for defense) while logging the seventh-fewest fast-break points. Boston looks to avoid track meets by also logging the fewest fast-break points per contest on offense. Against the Nuggets -- a team that totals the most fast-break points per game -- the Celtics being able to prevent those easy buckets in the open court should take this total down.

numberFire has this total reaching about 230 points, suggesting a 63.2% likelihood for the under. The current -108 line for the under has a 51.9% implied probability. While each offense has some advantages in shooting splits -- including Denver's 57.1 points in the paint per game (the most) against the Celtics allowing 48.3 points in the paint per game (13th-most) -- this total feels too high considering Boston's ability to slow down games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.