3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 1/21/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

Raptors Moneyline (+106)

If we can get any moneyline odds for a team facing the Toronto Raptors around this vicinity (-126), it's usually hard to pass on. In numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, Toronto ranks 26th while the Orlando Magic are 17th. Projection models across the board are backing the Magic, as well. numberFire's NBA game projections has Orlando winning 112.3-106.9, DRatings has the Magic 108.5-106.9, and MasseyRatings caps is off with a projected score of 109-106 in favor of Orlando.

However, injuries put the Magic in question. Orlando is expected to be without three starters in Jalen Suggs (back), Franz Wagner (reconditioning), and Goga Bitadze (concussion). Toronto's starting point guard Immanuel Quickley (hip) will be absent, but he's been out the past three contests, which the Raptors have gone 2-1 during the stretch.

Those two wins were eye-catching feats as 5-point underdogs against the Golden State Warriors on January 13th and 14-point 'dogs on January 15th when facing the Boston Celtics. Toronto's defense turned in exceptional outings by holding opponents to 99.0 points per game (PPG) during the span, and it dominated the paint battle, logging 55.0 points in the paint per game while giving up only 33.0 points in the paint per contest. Even in the Raptors' 130-112 loss against the Milwaukee Bucks on January 17th, they still won the paint battle 56 to 40 points.

Another solid defensive outing is in the picture with Orlando carrying the second-worst offensive rating while averaging a measly 104.2 PPG (the fewest). Plus, Wagner (24.4 PPG), Suggs (16.4 PPG), and Bitadze (9.6 PPG) all put up notable scoring averages. Despite boasting the third-best defensive rating, the Magic is still susceptible in the painted area by giving up the 12th-highest shot distribution around the rim, per Dunks & Threes.

Toronto's best shot distribution allowed is around the rim, and it touts the third-highest shot distribution around the rim on offense. Considering the Raptors log 54.1 points in the paint per game (3rd-most) compared to the Magic's 46.0 per-game average (13th-lowest), more domination in the paint should be ahead.

Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat

Trail Blazers Under 105.5 Points (-114)

The Miami Heat are heavy 11.5-point favorites against the Portland Trail Blazers. The margin could get pretty large if Portland's questionable pieces cannot go.

Alongside Donovan Clingan (ankle) sitting out, Anfernee Simons (elbow) and Robert Williams (ankle) are questionable. Simons provides 18.0 PPG and 25.3% usage rate -- both are the second-highest marks on team -- and Williams provides solid rim protection with 1.6 blocks per game. Clingan has a team-best 110.9 defensive rating, too. There's certainly an angle for Miami to cover a hefty 11.5-point spread.

Despite the enticing spread pick, I'd like to focus on Portland's 105.5-point team total. Simons' absence would be a massive blow to this offense. This unit already has the fourth-worst offensive rating and records 107.9 PPG (fifth-lowest). Miami has a solid defense, sporting the 10th-best rating while surrendering only 110.0 PPG (7th-lowest).

The Heat's fifth-slowest adjusted tempo probably plays the biggest role for this under play. They have the ability to control the pace thanks to the 15th-highest defensive rebounding percentage compared to the lowest defensive rebounding rate from Portland.

Miami can also take away the Blazers' biggest strength on offense. Portland likes to attack the rim with the 2nd-highest shot distribution around the rim while logging the 15th-most points in the paint per game. The Heat give up the sixth-lowest shot distribution around the rim.

After averaging only 107.3 PPG over the last 10 games, the Trail Blazers certainly have scoring concerns. numberFire is projecting 104.4 points for Portland. If Simons cannot go, I'm firmly on under 105.5 points for the Blazers.

Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers

Under 229 Points (-110)

After watching his Ohio State Buckeyes bring home a national championship on Monday night, LeBron James (foot) is probable for the Los Angeles Lakers' bout against the Washington Wizards. However, L.A. could still be without a key contributor as Anthony Davis (calf) is questionable for Tuesday.

Of course, being without Davis' 25.6 PPG would impact the Lake Show's offense. We have more than that for taking under 229 points, too.

This number feels very inflated from Washington's worst defensive rating in the NBA. The Lakers carry a 121.5-point team total, yet they've been under 120 points in nine consecutive games. This included facing some bad defenses, including 102 points against the Brooklyn Nets' sixth-worst defensive rating and 114 points against the Trail Blazers' fifth-worst defensive rating. After coming up with 108.7 PPG over the last nine, Los Angeles' team total seems far too high.

Some of this has to do with the Lakers playing at the eighth-slowest pace. The Wizards are a stark contrast by playing at the fourth-quickest pace. The pace of play probably fall somewhere in the middle of these two.

With that said, L.A. hasn't been anywhere close to this 121.5-point team total -- even against some of the league's worst defenses. Meanwhile, the Lakers give up the sixth-lowest three-point shot distribution, and Washington leans on the three-ball by sporting the 16th-highest three-point shot distribution from deep while attempting 38.0 three-point shots per game (12th-highest).

Between the Wizards holding the lowest defensive rating and the Lakers' slow pace of play, I'll happily take under 229 points.

Get a 30% Profit Boost to use on any NBA games taking place on January 21st, 2025! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.