3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 11/21/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets
Pistons -1.5 (-110)
The Detroit Pistons will travel to face the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday in what is essentially a pick 'em game given the narrow spread and similar moneyline odds. Even though the Hornets will be the home team, I'll back the Pistons to continue their recent stretch of success.
After beginning the season with an 0-4 record, Detroit has won 7 of their last 12 games, including 2 of their last 3 road contests. Meanwhile, Charlotte has lost four of their last five as they enter Thursday's showdown on a two-game losing streak.
Spread Betting
What makes me gravitate toward taking the Pistons to secure a victory by at least two points is the fact they at least have a formidable defense to hang their hat on as they rank 16th in adjusted defensive rating (112.8), 7th in effective field-goal percentage allowed (52.7%), and they don't surrender easy baskets with opposing teams having the 7th-worst field-goal percentage at the rim (59.7%) against them.
As for the Hornets, they are sitting 23rd in adjusted offensive rating (110.6) and 22nd in adjusted defensive rating (114.8) while also being 22nd in effective field-goal percentage allowed (55.2%). Lastly, Charlotte is 24th in offensive turnover rate (15.4%), 30th in offensive free throw rate (20.2%), and 22nd in defensive free throw rate (27.2%), so scoring against Detroit's stout defense won't be easy.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors
Raptors Under 109.5 Total Points (-110)
Ahead of Thursday's clash with the Toronto Raptors, the Minnesota Timberwolves boast one of the best defenses in the NBA, ranking 6th in adjusted defensive rating (110.9) and 13th in effective field-goal percentage allowed (53.8%). On top of that, the Timberwolves tend to funnel shots toward the rim as they are first in defensive three-point rate allowed (37.5%) and fourth in defensive mid-range-shot rate allowed (28.7%).
This should work in Minnesota's favor with Toronto posting the sixth-lowest field-goal percentage around the rim (58.5%) through their first 15 games. In addition to that, the Raptors are just an inefficient team in general, registering the eighth-worst effective field-goal percentage (51.9%) and eighth-worst three-point percentage (34.0%) while scoring 107 or fewer points in five of their last seven games.
Home Team Total Points
While Toronto has scored 123-plus points in back-to-back contests, those came against the Boston Celtics in an overtime affair and in a pace-up environment versus the Indiana Pacers. With that in mind, Minnesota plays at the 12th-slowest pace and they are giving up the 10th-fewest points per game (111.1) in the league.
Along with their woeful shooting metrics, the Raptors are 27th in offensive turnover rate (15.7%), 25th in defensive turnover rate (12.5%), and 25th in offensive rebound rate allowed (27.3%), so possessions could be limited for them. Considering that the Timberwolves haven't played since Sunday, they'll have fresh legs on the defensive end of the court to contain a below-average Raptors offense.
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers
Over 217 (-110)
Outside of a matchup against a severely shorthanded New Orleans Pelicans team, the Los Angeles Lakers have been finding themselves in shootouts recently. Even with the Orlando Magic playing at the fifth-slowest pace in the league, I expect there to be over 217 points scored in Thursday's meeting with the Lakers.
Amid their current six-game winning streak, Los Angeles has been involved in five games with 222-plus points scored, and that involves a bout versus a Philadelphia 76ers squad that operates at the sixth-slowest pace. It's easy to see why the Lakers tend to be in high-scoring games as they rank 5th in adjusted offensive rating (115.4) and 23rd in adjusted defensive rating (114.9).
Total Points
Despite the Magic residing at 27th in adjusted offensive rating (109.8) and 2nd in adjusted defensive rating (106.9), they should benefit from playing in a pace-up game with the Lakers operating at the 15th-fastest pace. Additionally, Orlando should be aided by the fact that LA is 21st in effective field-goal percentage allowed (55.1%).
With Anthony Davis and LeBron James attacking the rim consistently, the Lakers are eighth in effective field-goal percentage (55.5%) and sixth in field-goal percentage around the rim (66.8%). Los Angeles is logging an 8-6 record to the over this season, going 6-4 to the over in their last 10 games.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.