3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 11/18/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Washington Wizards at New York Knicks
Over 232.5 Points (-110)
Total Points
Blowouts typically aren't good for overs. Don't tell the Washington Wizards.
Washington has seen the over hit in 7 of their 12 contests despite a league-worst -12.5 net rating (NRTG) and 9 double-digit losses. The reason? Their young squad plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA (104.0) with its worst defensive rating (118.8 DRTG).
However, I'm looking at both sides a bit skeptically on the defensive end in what should be an uptempo tilt. The New York Knicks have the 9th-worst DRTG (115.5) themselves and have quietly hit the over in 7 of their 13 contests.
Both of these squads are in the top eight for three-point attempts (3PA) allowed per game, as well. The offensive systems should produce triples even if the starters are off the floor late.
With Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) back in the lineup last night, both of these scoring attacks are at full strength. You don't often see Tom Thibodeau's Knicks have a total in the 230s at "The Mecca," but it seems totally justifiable given how these teams are performing on the defensive end.
Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns
Magic -3.5 (-110)
Spread Betting
I assumed there was major injury news looking at this spread, and there most certainly is.
Kevin Durant (foot) is out for the Phoenix Suns for a while, and Bradley Beal (calf) will miss his fourth consecutive contest on Monday. Per PBP Stats, Phoenix has a -14.6 NRTG in three games where the duo haven't play thus far, and their NRTG with both off the floor (-4.6) in medium-to-maximum leverage situations isn't much better in a larger sample.
Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic have stayed more than afloat following the loss of Paolo Banchero (oblique). Orlando has a +4.6 NRTG in games where Banchero hasn't played.
The Magic also enter on a rest advantage here. Their last game was Friday, and the Suns played in Minneapolis yesterday (and lost a close one).
I was surprised to see Phoenix getting points on their home floor, but these teams' relative situations actually make Orlando seems like a bargain.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
Warriors Under 115.5 Points (-115)
Away Team Total Points
This is one of those lines that can feel like a win before the game has even started.
The Golden State Warriors would be jaunting quite the incline if Stephen Curry (knee) was unable to suit up in this one. He seems truly questionable as a first-time report due to this issue.
In medium-to-maximum leverage situations, Golden State's got a 111.9 offensive rating (ORTG) with Curry off the floor compared to 123.5 when he's on. It's no secret Steph is one of the most impactful injuries in NBA betting.
This current line is still a tough ask even if Curry plays, though. The Los Angeles Clippers have a 110.1 DRTG (10th in the NBA) at home, and they've played at the fourth-slowest pace in the league at the Intuit Dome.
Five of the Clippers' eight home games this season have fallen under the total, and they've allowed north of 106 regulation points at home this season just once. Without Steph, the Warriors will have extreme difficulty getting to this mark.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.