3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 1/6/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons

Pistons Over 115.5 Points (-120)

The Detroit Pistons are enjoying a hot streak by winning six of their last seven games. They've also logged 115.3 points per game (PPG) during the span, which is a significant jump compared to their season average of 111.8 PPG (14th-fewest). Tonight's team prop is set at 115.5 points, and the Portland Trail Blazers have the fourth-worst defensive rating. Opponents have reached 120 points in four of the Blazers' past six outings.

Ranking 18th in offensive rating, Detroit's offense doesn't look like anything much. However, its shooting splits are quite even, sitting 15th in shot distribution around the rim and 16th on three-point distribution -- via Dunks & Threes. Additionally, the Pistons record the 15th-most points in the paint per game and the 17th-most three-point attempts per contest. This makes Detroit flexible, giving it the chance to attack most weaknesses.

Portland is allowing the 11th-highest shot distribution around the rim and the 8th-most three-point makes per contest. The Pistons should be able to attack any which way to keep this hot streak going. The paint attack has flourished over the past four, averaging 53.5 points in the paint per game (season average is 48.7). Deandre Ayton (rest) is probable for the Blazers, meaning the frontcourt will likely be Ayton (119.0 defensive rating) and Deni Avdija (119.8 defensive rating).

Adding to the frontcourt worries, the Pistons boast the 10th-highest offensive rebounding percentage while the Trail Blazers have the 2nd-lowest defensive rebounding rate. Along with the chance to live in the paint, Detroit should get plenty of second-chance points too.

numberFire's NBA game projections has the Pistons scoring 115.8 points, suggesting a lean for the over.

Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves

Under 214.5 Points (-108)

Long injury reports have been a regular in the NBA for years, likely contributing to the declined ratings. The Los Angeles Clippers against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday is a rarity as both teams are mostly healthy while vying for postseason spots. Soak in this matchup between two quality squads from the Western Conference.

With that said, what is the best bet for this collision? Neither team plays at a fast pace -- hence the 214.5 total. The Clippers have the 12th-slowest adjusted pace while the T-Wolves play at the 5th-slowest mark. Los Angeles attempts the sixth-fewest field goal attempts per game and gives up the fifth-fewest shots on defense, and Minnesota is around the same ballpark by taking the fifth-fewest shots per contest and surrendering the eighth-fewest field goal attempts per contest.

This could be like watching paint dry, especially if you're partial to quick-paced, high-scoring battles. However, this could be a refreshing sight for some in a league ruled by three-point shooting and high scoring totals. It doesn't take a whole lot of brain power to settle on the under.

We know the pace and shooting volume should aid the under, and both teams are in the top eight of defensive rating.

Starting with the Timberwolves' defense, the unit gives up the 13th-fewest points in the paint per game while ranked 10th in shot distribution around the rim. Meanwhile, the Clips love to attack the rim with the 11th-highest shot distribution around the rim and the 8th-most points in the paint per contest. This is a good-on-good matchup; it wouldn't be a major surprise if L.A. struggled around the rim with Rudy Gobert (108.6 defensive rating) lurking.

On the other side of the court, this is where things could get tricky for the under. Los Angeles has an excellent defense, but it allows the sixth-highest shot distribution from three. Minnesota carries the third-highest shot distribution from three along with the fifth-most made threes per game and fifth-highest three-point percentage. Thanks to a slow pace, the Clippers have still managed to give up only 12.8 made threes per contest (fifth-fewest) while opponents shoot 34.0% from deep (second-fewest). These numbers at least give us some hope for L.A. defending the three-point line.

DRatings' game projections have this total reaching about 210.3 points. Don't expect a boatload of points with two exceptional defenses and slow-paced squads colliding.

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls

Bulls Moneyline (+124)

Models are giving us some interesting results for tonight's bout between the San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls. numberFire has Chicago by about two points, DRatings has the Spurs winning by three, and MasseyRatings points to the Bulls by one point. With two projections backing the home underdog, Chicago deserves some attention.

When labeled as an underdog at home, the Bulls have won back-to-back games, including Sunday's 139-126 win over the New York Knicks as 5.5-point 'dogs. The Spurs' 8-2 record against the spread (ATS) over the last 10 is admittedly scary, but we have the numbers for an upset pick.

First off, Chicago will be without Ayo Dosunmu (calf). The Bulls have been just fine with Ayo over the last five games, going 3-2 outright and ATS. This also included two wins as underdogs. When Dosunmu leaves the court, Chicago's effective field goal percentage (eFG%) goes from 56.2% to 56.3% and its true shooting percentage dips from 59.0% to 58.8%.

Defense is where we see a big difference, for opponents' eFG% drops from 56.4% to 52.9%. That's as expected with Ayo carrying a putrid 120.7 defensive rating this season. The moral of the story: don't fade the Bulls just because Dosunmu can't go.

Additionally, Chicago loves to shoot the three-ball with the second-highest shot distribution paired with the second-most shots per contest. San Antonio's defense is a bit shaky here by allowing the 14th-most three-point attempts per game. On the other end of the court, the Spurs attempt the seventh-most threes per game, and the Bulls allow the eighth-lowest shot distribution from beyond the arc.

Along with potentially winning the three-point battle, Chicago boasts the sixth-highest defensive rebounding percentage compared to San Antonio's ninth-lowest defensive rebounding rate. Draining more threes while controlling the possession battle seems like a recipe for success.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.