3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 1/27/25
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers Under 123.5 Points (-118)
Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has a grudge match tonight as his Detroit Pistons take on his former team the Cleveland Cavaliers. Despite holding the Association's second-best overall record (36-9), the Cavs are finally looking human after losing three consecutive games. Cleveland is expected to roll tonight as 10.5-point favorites, but I expect some underperforming from this squad.
The Cavaliers' team total is set at 123.5 points. Detroit's defense is solid, touting the 13th-highest defensive rating while giving up 113.1 PPG (16th-fewest) and 87.9 field goal attempts per game (9th-fewest). The Pistons have the ability to slow this game by carrying the 12th-highest offensive rebound rate and 5th-highest defensive rebound rate compared to Cleveland ranking 20th and 14th in the categories.
Led by the league's top offensive rating, the Cavs record the eighth-most points in the paint per game and the fifth-most three-point shots per contest. Detroit defends both areas quite well, giving up the 6th-lowest shot distribution around the rim and the 14th-lowest mark from three. Opponents average 46.3 points in the paint per game (7th-fewest) and 36.8 three-point attempts per contest (11th-fewest) when facing the Pistons.
The two met once this season on October 25, and Cleveland was held to 113 points: 44 points in the paint (50.2 per-game average); 34 three-point shots (41.0 per-game average); and the Pistons won the rebounding battle by three. Detroit has given up over 121 points only once over its previous 10 games.
DRatings' game projections have the Cavaliers scoring 119.7 points while MasseyRatings is predicting 122 points. Look for Cleveland to go under its scoring total as the Pistons have the tendency to make things ugly.
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
Heat Moneyline (-108)
An in-state battle between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat is viewed as a pick 'em with both sides carrying -108 moneyline odds. Of the two, I like the home team, for Miami is 5-5 over its last 10 compared to Orlando at 3-7. Neither team has been great by any stretch, but the Heat are at least healthy.
Miami is expected to have Tyler Herro (groin) while two starters are questionable for the Magic -- Jalen Suggs (quad) and Goga Bitadze (concussion). Bitadze leads the team in rebounds per game (RPG) at 8.2, and Suggs provides an elite 106.5 defensive rating. Orlando's starting guard would likely have been the primary defender of Herro, who leads the Heat with 24.0 PPG and is second on the team with a 115.4 offensive rating. If Miami's top scorer is thriving, their chances of winning should climb.
The Magic playing at the NBA's slowest pace can be a pain for many, but the Heat already play with the fifth-slowest tempo. Orlando won't necessarily take Miami out of its groove, and its 36.7% three-point percentage (11th-highest) could prove to be deadly. Opponents are shooting 36.7% from deep against the Magic (9th-worst for defense), and Orlando will likely give up more three-point attempts than normal with the Heat launching the 10th-most attempts per contest.
Over their last 10 matchups, the Magic have seen two teams in the top 10 for the most three-point shots per game. The two opponents combined for 35.5 three-point attempts per game compared to Orlando's season-long mark of 30.1 shots allowed per game. The Boston Celtics tore apart the Magic's perimeter defense on January 17, cashing in 17 of 37 three-point looks (45.9%). The Magic failed to cover both of these games while losing by an average margin of -21.0 points.
Exceptional three-point shooting teams have been a thorn in Orlando's side. This is enough for me to settle on the Heat moneyline.
Houston Rockets at Boston Celtics
Rockets +6.5 (-112)
Two of the NBA's four best records meet as the Houston Rockets pay a visit to the Boston Celtics. Considering the recent level of play from each squad, Houston is an intriguing moneyline pick (+215), for its 8-2 and 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) over the previous 10 compared to Boston at 6-4 and 4-6 ATS during the span.
I'll stop at the Rockets to cover the spread, but the moneyline could be worth a dart. Houston covering is in line with projection models as DRatings has the Celtics winning 113.2-108.2 compared to MasseyRatings predicting 114-108 in favor of Boston.
Slowing Boston's three-point attack is always of utmost importance, for it takes and makes the most threes per game. The Rockets allow the second-fewest attempted and made three-pointers per game along with the second-lowest three-point shot distribution allowed (per Dunks & Threes).
On the other side of the court, the Celtics surrender the 4th-lowest shot distribution from three compared to the 13th-lowest mark allowed around the rim. Opponents average 48.1 interior points per game against Boston (13th-highest), and Houston loves to attack the rim by logging the 7th-most points in the paint per contest paired with the 5th-highest shot distribution around the rim.
After covering three of their last four games, the Rockets have another ideal matchup to cover the spread. Saturday's 135-131 win as 4.5-point underdogs against the Cleveland Cavaliers provides even more comfort for Houston performing on the road against one of the league's best.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.