3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 1/13/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors

Warriors Over 117.5 Points (-115)

The Golden State Warriors rank 20th in offensive rating, but they get to take on the Toronto Raptors' 3rd-worst defensive rating on Monday night. Golden State has managed to log only 106.9 points per game (PPG) over its last 10 contests, and Stephen Curry has missed three of the past nine games while totaling under 20 points in two of his past six outings.

Not only do the Warriors get to play a weak defense, but Curry is also not on the injury report and will likely be primarily defended by Immanuel Quickley -- who has a dreadful 124.3 defensive rating. Of course, Curry loves to shoot the three-ball with 10.6 three-point attempts per contest, and Toronto allows the eighth-most attempts per game and the eighth-highest three-point shot distribution (via Dunks & Threes).

Curry will be an enticing target for points props tonight, and this coincides with over 117.5 points for the Warriors. They shoot the fourth-most threes per game along with the eighth-highest three-point shot distribution. The Raptors yielding the sixth-most points in the paint per game could lead to some easy baskets, as well.

Most importantly, the pace of play won't be a worry for Golden State going over. Toronto plays at the 9th-quickest adjusted pace while the Warriors aren't far behind at 11th. Both squads are in the top 11 of field goal attempts per game, and the Raptors give up the eighth-most fastbreak points per game.

Considering opponents log 119.2 PPG (fourth-most) and have a 55.7% effective field goal percentage (fifth-highest) against Toronto, the Warriors going over their team total is one of the best bets of Monday.

Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers

Heat +6.5 (-112)

Despite the Miami Heat rolling on a three-game winning streak, they are 6.5-point underdogs tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers. Of course, this line takes into account the suspension of Jimmy Butler. However, this feels like addition by subtraction at the moment. While Miami's eFG% drops from 54.8% to 52.1% when Butler is out of the lineup, the Heat give up a 51.8 eFG% when Butler is off the court compared to 55.9% when he's playing.

Losing Butler's 17.6 PPG certainly hurts, but the Heat still have Tyler Herro (23.8 PPG) and Bam Adebayo (16.1 PPG) in the lineup. We just saw Miami take out the Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points as 5.0-point favorites on Saturday. More overachieving could be imminent on Monday.

Amid the devastating fires in Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Clippers had Saturday's home game postponed but they're back in action tonight. L.A. has the league's fourth-best defensive rating, but it gives up the sixth-highest three-point shot distribution. Meanwhile, the Heat attempt the 10th-most threes per contest and have 10th-highest three-point shot distribution while shooting 36.8% from deep (10th-highest).

On the other side of the court, the Clippers lean on attacking the rim by averaging the 12th-most points in the paint per game paired with the 15th-highest shot distribution around rim (in the bottom 10 for mid-range and threes). However, Miami is stingy in defending the rim by allowing the 14th-fewest points in the paint per game and the 3rd-lowest shot distribution around the rim.

Considering the shot distributions, the Heat are a nice bet to cover. numberFire's NBA game projections have Los Angeles winning by about two points.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers

Lakers -2.5 (-112)

The Los Angeles Lakers are in the midst of a rough 2-3 stretch, but they're still a promising spread bet by going 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10. With LeBron James (foot) and Anthony Davis (foot) both probable, the Lakers being favored by 2.5 points against the San Antonio Spurs feels too low.

This is certainly in line with projection models. numberFire has L.A. by about 4.4 points, and DRatings has the Lake Show by about 3.2 points. San Antonio has failed to cover three consecutive games; I like the Lakers' chances of covering yet again.

Starting with the Spurs' offense, the unit attempts the sixth-most threes per game paired with the sixth-highest shot distribution from beyond the arc. The Lakers defend the perimeter well by giving up only 36.9 three-point attempts per contest (11th-fewest) and a 41.0% shot distribution (6th-lowest).

While Victor Wembanyama provides outstanding defense thanks to his 110.3 defensive rating, San Antonio still allows the sixth-highest shot distribution around the rim. That's bad news for them against a Lakers team that sports the 13th-highest shot distribution around the rim while recording the 10th-most points in the paint per contest.

These two have faced twice this season, and frankly, it's been very one sided. On November 15, the Lakers won by five while winning the paint battle 50-44. November 27th provided a lopsided result as Los Angeles won 119-101, logging 58 points in the paint compared to the Spurs' 42.

The Lakers are 2-0 ATS when facing San Antonio this season. Expect this trend to keep up on Monday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.