3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 12/13/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best NBA Betting Picks
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
Wizards Under 107.5 Points (-110)
The Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers are two teams with very different goals in mind. The Cavaliers sport the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals (+1400), and the 3-19 Wizards are currently in position to draft No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft -- which will likely feature the coveted forward Cooper Flagg. Washington is 1-17 over its last 18 games while Cleveland looks human with a 4-3 record over its previous 7 (15-0 to start the season).
Injuries are also a problem for the Wizards, for they are expected to be without Kyle Kuzma (rib), Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring), and Corey Kispert (ankle). That's three double-digit scorers, and Kuzma (15.8 points per game (PPG)) and Brogdon (13.8 PPG) are second and third on the team in the scoring department. Considering this squad already touts the worst offensive rating the Association, we should expect few points against the Cavs' 10th-best defensive rating.
Kuzma has been out for five straight games and played for only eight minutes on November 27. During that six-game span, the Wiz are averaging a measly 105.3 PPG. That's even lower than their dreary 107.6 PPG season-long average (seventh-lowest).
Away Team Total Points
Washington likes to attack the rim by averaging the 9th-most points in the paint per contest while holding the 16th-highest shot distribution around the rim, via Dunks & Threes. Kuzma's absence has certainly impacted this attack as he takes 49.7% of his field goals within 10 feet of the basket.
Cleveland has done a heck of a job at defending the rim, allowing the sixth-fewest points in the paint per contest. It features one of the league's best rim-protecting duos in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Mobley (ankle) is questionable for tonight, but the Cavs' Dean Wade can slide into the starting power forward spot with his solid 111.1 defensive rating.
Friday's clash will probably look similar to December 3's matchup, which Cleveland won 118-87. The Cavaliers are huge 17.5-point favorites, and with or without Mobley, they still have the paint defense to fend off the Wizards. Look for Washington to struggle on offense yet again, going under its point total.
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Timberwolves Over 111.5 Points (-112)
The Los Angeles Lakers have given up over 130 points in two of their last three, yet tonight's matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves carries only a 213.5-point total. Each squad's slow pace of play has a role, for the Lakers have the 10th-slowest pace while averaging the 9th-fewest field goal attempts per contest, and the Timberwolves tout the 7th-slowest pace and shoot the 3rd-fewest shots per game.
Minnesota's defense checks out with the fifth-best rating. However, Los Angeles features the fifth-worst defensive rating. Instead of targeting the overall total, the Wolves' 111.5-point prop is promising.
As mentioned, L.A. has surrendered over 130 points in two of the last three, putting its average at 122.0 PPG allowed over the three-game stretch. Its interior defense gives up 52.2 points in the paint per game (fourth-most), and those struggles have continued with the last three opponents logging 52.0 points in the paint per contest. The perimeter defense is where things have gone down hill.
The Lakers surrender 37.7 three-point attempt per game (15th-fewest) and 14.0 makes per contest (7th-most). This has jumped to 41.0 three-point attempts allowed per game and 16.7 makes allowed per contest during the three-game stretch. To make matters worse, this puts opponents at about 41.8% shooting from deep over the last three. Opponents have shot 37.2% from three-point land (fifth-highest) against Los Angeles this season.
Home Team Total Points
Minnesota has the recipe to keep making this perimeter defense pay; the T-Wolves attempt the 5th-most threes per game, have the 3rd-highest shot distribution from three, and shoot at a 37.5% clip from deep (10th-highest). Anthony Edwards, who has a 25.5-point prop for this game, is worth circling with his 10.5 three-point attempts per game while draining 42.7% of those looks from three.
When Edwards reaches 30 points this season, the Timberwolves average 121.7 PPG. A big night from Edwards' seems likely, especially when the Lake Show's wing defenders are Austin Reaves (117.5 defensive rating), Dalton Knecht (119.0 defensive rating), and Max Christie (121.0 defensive rating). Reaves (pelvis) is questionable, though, giving Edwards an even better chance of scoring against the likes of Knecht and/or Christie.
numberFire's NBA predictions have Minnesota totaling 116.5 points, and DRatings have the Wolves logging 114.2 points. Give me the T-Wolves to come up with a big scoring night against a stumbling defense.
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets
Nuggets Over 116.5 Points (-115)
Friday's theme is team totals as we round out our picks by taking the over for the Denver Nuggets' 116.5-point prop. While the Los Angeles Clippers boast the sixth-best defensive rating, this pick comes with good reasoning.
First off, Denver is red-hot with 121.8 PPG over its last 10 games. While the Nuggets already carry 118.7 PPG this season (fifth-most), this is still a solid jump from the NBA's seventh-best offensive rating.
As usual, defending Denver starts and ends with Nikola Jokic. Good luck stopping The Joker right now, for he's logging a ridiculous 35.1 PPG while shooting 56.1% from the field and 44.4% from three since returning from injury on November 22. He's still stuffing the stat sheet, averaging 13.4 rebounds per game (RPG), 8.4 assists per game (APG), and 1.9 steals per game since returning from injury. In case you forgot, Jokic decided to remind the league that he's still the most valuable player in basketball -- hence his -115 odds to win the MVP award.
Jokic has feasted in his two matchups against the Clips this season, recording 34.5 PPG, 11.5 RPG, and 7.5 APG while 52.0% from the floor. Those numbers should keep up as he holds a 31.5-point prop for tonight.
Home Team Total Points
Additionally, there should be some concern around Los Angeles' perimeter defense. Derrick Jones Jr. (hamstring) and Terance Mann (finger) are expected to be out. Mann has a team-high 116.3 defensive rating, so that isn't too big of a deal. However, Jones sports a 111.8 defensive rating.
This could mean more minutes for players like Nah'Shon Hyland (114.8 defensive rating) and Jordan Miller (114.8 defensive rating). Among players with 10 games under their belts, Hyland and Miller carry the second-highest defensive ratings on the Clippers. L.A. will likely keep its fingers crossed that Denver's Jamal Murray (questionable with hamstring) cannot go.
Still, the Nuggets have some capable wings in Michael Porter Jr. (19.0 PPG) and Christian Braun (15.4 PPG). Denver rarely shoots threes with the lowest shot distribution, but its very efficient at 38.2% from deep (seventh-highest). This is something to keep in mind with a couple of vulnerable Clipper wings getting more minutes.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.