3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 1/3/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, lets see what NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today.

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a promo for all customers betting on NBA games happening Friday, January 3rd!

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Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

Under 216.5 Points (-110)

Tonight's matchup between the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors has a low total of 216.5 points. Some of this is due to Orlando being without key players like Paolo Banchero (reconditioning) and Franz Wagner (oblique). Toronto's leading scorer RJ Barrett -- who logs 23.4 points per game (PPG) -- is also questionable from an illness.

This is not just chalked up to injuries, though. The Magic have the fifth-worst offensive rating while the Raptors hold the seventh-worst mark. Each team is in the bottom half of PPG and the bottom 10 of effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Ultimately, this total could come down to the pace of play. Orlando plays at the second-slowest adjusted pace compared to Toronto maintaining the sixth-quickest tempo.

The Magic do an excellent job of eliminating fast break points, surrendering the fifth-fewest per game. Not only should the Raptors' fifth-most fast break PPG come down, Orlando also has the ability to dominate the glass. Even among injuries, the Magic still have quality rebounders in Goga Bitadze, who logs 8.3 rebounds per game (RPG), and Wendell Carter Jr. (7.2 RPG).

Orlando has the highest defensive rebounding percentage, harming Toronto's third-highest offensive rebounding percentage. Plus, the Magic carry the 12th-highest offensive rebounding rate while the Raptors have the 5th-lowest defensive rebounding percentage. The possession battle could be domination, for Orlando also forces the second-most turnovers per game (17.3) while Toronto records the fourth-most turnovers per contest (fourth-most).

If the Magic are finishing this game with far more possessions, this should turn into a slow-paced game led by defense. Therefore, the under looks like the best side to take -- especially if the Raptors top scorer, Barrett, cannot go tonight.

New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder

Knicks Under 108.5 Points (-110)

Two red-hot squads will collide on Friday night as the New York Knicks are riding a nine-game winning streak while the Oklahoma City Thunder have won eight straight. Perhaps the biggest key for this matchup will be the status of Jalen Brunson, who is questionable from a calf injury.

In a good-on-good matchup, I'm willing to lean on one of the best units in the Association. The Thunder still boast the best defensive rating across the NBA. New York is a dangerous unit that averages 117.9 PPG (sixth-most), fueled by 51.4 points in the paint per contest (fifth-most). However, OKC allows the fewest points in the paint per game while opponents average the fifth-lowest shot distribution around the rim, via Dunks & Threes.

The Thunder give up the second-highest three-point shot distribution, though. New York sports deadly efficiency from three, holding a 38.8% shooting percentage (second-highest). This would take a hit if Brunson cannot go, for he's second on the team in three-point shots per game while draining 40.3% of the looks.

Over the last five games, the Knicks have gone on a cold spell from three, shooting only 31.7% during the span. If the threes aren't falling, New York will likely be in deep trouble. In Oklahoma City's frontcourt, Isaiah Hartenstein (102.0 defensive rating) has filled in nicely for the injured Chet Holmgren (99.2 defensive rating), and Jalen Williams (104.5 defensive rating) continues to provide solid defense.

The last time the Knicks faced a top-five defensive rating, they recorded 108 points. Expect another low-scoring game as DRatings' game projections have New York posting 108.0 points.

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings

Kings -3.5 (-114)

The Sacramento Kings have been a tough cover all season, holding an 11-22-1 against the spread (ATS) record. It hasn't been any better over the last 10 games at 2-8. So why in the world would we back the Kings against the 23-11 Memphis Grizzlies?

Similar to last season, the Grizzlies' injury report looks like an encyclopedia. Ja Morant (AC joint) and Marcus Smart (finger) are out while Zach Edey (concussion) and Brandon Clarke (calf) are questionable. Keegan Murray (ankle) is expected to be the only notable absence for the Kings as he's fifth on the team in scoring (11.6 PPG).

Despite Memphis boasting the fourth-best defensive rating, this game has a 240 total. Each squad is among the top eight in offensive rating, and the Grizz have the quickest pace in basketball. However, we can't completely ignore the absence of Morant (21.2 PPG).

When the star guard leaves the court, Memphis sees its eFG% of 55.7% drop to 55.2% and its true shooting percentage go from 59.6% to 58.0%. Of course, he's a guard who loves to attack the rim with only 4.8 three-point shots per game while taking 38.9% of hit shots within five feet of the basket this season.

The Grizzlies record the second-most points in the paint per contest at 57.1. This will likely fall with no Morant. Over his first two absences, Memphis averaged only 41.0 points in the paint per game while logging 111.5 PPG (season average is a league-high 123.2 PPG). Considering Sacramento also allows the third-fewest points in the paint per game while opponents average the lowest shot distribution around the rim, the Grizz's 118.5-point team total feels too high.

Alongside some scoring concerns for Memphis, the Kings are in the top half of points in the paint per contest while the Grizzlies allow the 10th-highest shot distribution around the rim. Opponents also average the 12th-most points in the paint per contest when facing Memphis, which is a bit surprising considering Jaren Jackson Jr. (105.1 defensive rating) roams the painted area.

numberFire's NBA game projections have Sacramento winning by about two points, and DRatings echoes a similar sentiment with the Kings by roughly three points. Keep in mind models can often fail to account for injuries. If that's the case, you have to feel good about the Kings due to the absence of Morant.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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