3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/21/24
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
MLB Player Props
Fernando Tatis Jr. to Record 2+ Total Bases (-135)
I think the market is undervaluing the San Diego Padres a bit for their clash with the Cincinnati Reds, a game which gets under way at 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Reds are giving the ball to Andrew Abbott. The southpaw is getting good results (3.06 ERA), but his advanced numbers don't look so hot. Abbott has a 4.49 xFIP with a lowly 8.9% swinging-strike rate. Against righties, he's allowing a .333 wOBA with a meh 19.3% strikeout rate.
That puts me on Fernando Tatis Jr..
Tatis is having a much better year than his .336 wOBA would have you believe as his expected wOBA (xwOBA) is .375. He's got the wheels and power to cash this bet in one swing.
The location of this game is a big deal, as well. When pitching at Great American Ball Park over his career, Abbott has been tagged for 1.72 homers per nine, and the location is obviously a big boost for Tatis compared to his usual home park. On the road this year, Tatis owns a .366 wOBA, noticeably higher than his .305 wOBA at Petco.
Matt Olson to Record an RBI (-110)
The Atlanta Braves could go nuts tonight.
Not only is Atlanta facing a blah pitcher (Javier Assad), the wind is howling out to left at Wrigley.
I think you can make a case for a few Braves props, but the one I'm zeroed in on is Matt Olson to drive in a run.
Let's start with Assad. His 1.49 ERA is a smoke-and-mirrors act. His SIERA is 4.00, and he really struggles to miss bats, boasting a tiny 6.4% swinging-strike rate. He's thriving thanks to some good fortune -- namely an 87.1% strand rate and .246 BABIP.
Assad's results could take a turn for the worse against a stout Braves lineup, and with Assad giving up a 42.6% fly-ball rate to lefties, Olson catches my eye.
Olson has posted a .376 xwOBA overall, and he's been swinging it well of late, mashing his way to a .362 wOBA and three jacks so far in May. Hitting behind Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna is a pretty great spot for RBIs, and with Atlanta listed at -115 to score over 5.5 runs, Olson should have a couple RBI chances tonight.
Our projections peg him for 0.85 RBIs, tied for the fourth-most of the day.
Freddie Freeman to Record 2+ Bases (-105)
Of the starting pitchers I've picked on today in this article, Brandon Pfaadt is definitely the best of the bunch. But the Los Angeles Dodgers are a brutal matchup for anyone, and Pfaadt's career numbers versus lefties put me on Freddie Freeman.
Across 311 total lefties faced in his career, Pfaadt is surrendering a .355 wOBA, 38.9% hard-hit rate and 42.0% fly-ball rate in the split. Overall, he's taken a step forward this year, but Pfaadt has still had a tough time with left-handed bats, mustering only a 19.0% K rate in the split while allowing a 40.7% hard-hit rate.
Pfaadt has taken on LA twice in his career, and it hasn't gone well as the Dodgers have put up nine earned runs in 8 2/3 frames over those two outings.
Freeman is 5 for 12 over his last three games, and for the season, he's hammering righties to the tune of a .443 wOBA and 41.1% fly-ball rate. Given Pfaadt's and Freeman's splits, the Dodgers' first baseman is in a great spot tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.