3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/27/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Xander Bogaerts To Record 2+ Bases (-130)

Though the San Diego Padres haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, just ask star relief pitcher Josh Hader if he thinks they have a shot at the postseason.

Hader refused, or rather, failed to “make himself available” to pitch in last night’s win against the San Francisco Giants, giving credence to the idea that end-of-season meaningless baseball can wreak havoc on potential player props.

But there is one Padre who doesn’t seem to care where his team stands in regards to his availability and performance.

Enter Xander Bogaerts, who has absolutely been killing the ball this September. He’s posted a .422 batting average, .733 slugging percentage, 18.2% HR/FB ratio, and 229 wRC+ this month, making him one of the hottest players in baseball.

I’m targeting Bogey to continue his hot streak tonight opposite Giants pitcher Sean Manaea.

Manaea struggles against right-handed batters, allowing a .247 batting average, .331 weighted on-base average, .439 slugging percentage, and 1.39 home runs per nine innings. Though his stats against righties aren’t as dismal as they could get, we can certainly see that he seems to toil with them.

Bogaerts doesn’t show a major difference in performance when it comes to handedness of pitchers, but he still posts a .289 batting average, .325 batting average on balls in play, and 121 wRC+ against lefties, which is a superior stat line than his splits against right-handed pitchers.

Small batter vs. pitcher sample sizes can be misleading. Players enter in and out of hot streaks and cold streaks, making their performance against a particular pitcher a potential outlier.

However, Bogaerts -- and Manaea for that matter -- have been pretty consistent over their careers, so it’s probably worth noting in this case that the aforementioned Padre comes in with 13 at-bats opposite the Giants pitcher, raking in six hits, including two doubles and one home run.

Manaea's recent pitch mix is also worth noting. In his last 10 starts, he has thrown his slider 27.6% of the time (a slight uptick from his average 26.5% slider appearance this season). He has also reintroduced his changeup in his last five starts, throwing it for an average of 18.8% of the time.

This is great news for Bogaerts for two reasons. Firstly, he has boasted a 7.3 slider runs above average this year, and a 1.1 changeup runs above average this year. Secondly, he has struggled against the fastball this season, posting a -6.5 fastball runs above average. Manaea throwing more sliders and changeups (and fewer fastballs) should allow Bogey to continue his hot streak.

Adolis Garcia To Hit A Home Run (+350)

The Texas Rangers have a two-and-a-half game lead on the AL West Division title, but with a four-game series opposite division rival Seattle Mariners on the horizon, their job is not done yet.

The Rangers will look to capitalize off tonight’s matchup against the disappointing Los Angeles Angels and vulnerable pitcher Griffin Canning.

Canning enters the night with abysmal numbers against right-handed batters, allowing a .496 slugging percentage, 23.1% HR/FB ratio, 42.7% hard-hit rate, and a whopping 2.19 home runs per nine innings. He’s clearly prone to give up some big hits, and with the Rangers still fighting for a playoff spot, they will come out swinging tonight.

It's natural that we target a right-handed batter to rake in tonight’s game (sorry, Corey Seager), and the Rangers righty I’m siding with is Adolis Garcia.

Garcia enters the night with a team-leading 37 home runs (eighth most in MLB). He tends to hit for power against right-handed pitchers, posting a 45.8% fly-ball rate, 43% hard-hit rate, and 21.5% HR/FB ratio. Though his .191 batting average this month certainly isn’t up to snuff, five out of his nine September hits have been home runs, and with this advantageous matchup, we could be primed to see a sixth home run tonight.

The Texas power hitter performs best against the slider, boasting a 7.4 slider runs above average. Luckily for him, Canning is quite familiar with the slider, throwing it 30.3% of the time.

numberFire’s daily projections predict the Rangers to hit 1.26 home runs tonight, and though righties Marcus Semien and Mitch Garver are also great options, I think the likely candidate to go yard is Garcia.

Framber Valdez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-184)

In checking out potential star-pitching performances for tonight’s game, I was super high on Pablo Lopez to have a great outing. He has a 29.2% strikeout rate (sixth in MLB), 31.4% strikeout rate in September, and is facing one of the worst teams in the Oakland Athletics, who have a 24.9% strikeout rate (fifth worst).

However, given that the Minnesota Twins have already clinched the AL Central, there is really no justification for Lopez’s strikeout line to be set at 8.5. This is a meaningless game for Minnesota, and we shouldn’t rely on this prop if we can’t even rely on Lopez to see a decent pitch count.

Framber Valdez, whose numbers are comparable to Lopez, has the advantage of a much better strikeout line and will be contending in a very meaningful game. He's the punchout ace I’m targeting instead.

Valdez and the Houston Astros will play their final game against their division rival Seattle Mariners in a game that has major bearing on how the postseason matchups will shake out. The two teams have split this series thus far, with the Mariners currently sitting half a game behind the Astros for the final AL Wild Card spot.

If there’s one thing we can count on, it’s that Dusty Baker and the ‘Stros will come out fighting to gain a further lead on Seattle, and Valdez’s performance is the most key component.

Valdez comes into the night with a solid 24.6% strikeout rate and 8.95 strikeouts per nine innings. He sees a major increase in strikeout rate opposite left-handed batters, posting a 32.4% rate. Luckily for him, four members of the Seattle lineup bat left-handed (not including switch-hitter Cal Raleigh), which is a bit higher than the normal MLB team average.

The ‘Stros pitcher has had a great September thus far, boasting a 26.9% strikeout rate and 9.91 strikeouts per nine innings.

As mentioned, Valdez will take the mound against the Mariners, a team that could hardly strike out more if they wanted to. Despite being a major playoff contender, Seattle lets up a 25.8% strikeout rate (second worst).

Though his strikeout propensity isn’t as ironclad as someone like Pablo Lopez, he undoubtedly has good numbers. This, combined with a meaningful game on the line and a strikeout-prone opponent, is grounds for a potential punchout fest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.